Stock Ratings / Financials / CGBD / earnings

BUR (46) GDOT (65) LU (48) BTGO (50) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.1% Move

$10.81 +2.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.83

Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $743.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.83 (+0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CGBD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CGBD SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (30% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 26% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.1% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$10.42-0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$10.39-1.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$10.22+5.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$10.81-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CGBD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CGBD currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.00) and Max Pain ($11.35) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $13.94.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CGBD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CGBD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.1% Swing Band

±$0.55 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

CGBD Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 50/100

Trailing EPS: $1.02 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (50/100)Model Risk Weight (50/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$70.0M	-$204.6M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$89.0M	$104.3M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$92.3M	$230.6M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CGBD)

✓Walkthrough of CGBD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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CGBD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.85%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $10.79H $10.81L $10.65C $10.81VOL 461.3K

RES: $12.78SUP: $10.01SMA50: $11.00SMA200: $11.15

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CGBD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CGBD Butterfly Map → + Track CGBD →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

0.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CGBD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CGBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CGBD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CGBD)

Financials Rank #852 of 1096 ⚔️ BUR vs CGBD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CGBD vs. BUR, GDOT, LU, BTGO)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) ranks #852 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #614 by equity capitalization ($743.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CGBD leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while GDOT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.6% ROIC and — gross margin. GDOT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with CGBD at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CGBD ACTIVE Carlyle Secured Lending Inc.	D	50/100	10.6x	—	6.0%	+2.27%	$743.8M	Benchmark Subject
BUR Burford Capital Limited	D	46/100	12.2x	—	9.7%	+3.25%	$763.7M	/bur-vs-cgbd →
GDOT Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A)	C	65/100	—	—	30.6%	+1.06%	$706.0M	/gdot-vs-cgbd →
LU Lufax Holding Ltd (each representing twenty (20) )	D	48/100	—	—	—	-2.94%	$687.3M	/lu-vs-cgbd →
BTGO BitGo Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D	50/100	—	—	—	-0.17%	$680.6M	/btgo-vs-cgbd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001544206

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $70.0M, operating cash flow of -$204.6M, and free cash flow of -$204.6M (-296.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, CGBD closed FY2025 with $2.79B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$70.0M	-$204.6M	-$204.6M	$2.79B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$89.0M	$104.3M	$104.3M	$1.93B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$92.3M	$230.6M	$230.6M	—	—

3. CGBD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CGBD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (NASDAQ: CGBD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $10.81 (+2.27% 1D, market cap $743.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CGBD ranks #852 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CGBD compare to BUR and GDOT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CGBD carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, BUR (Burford Capital Limited) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $763.7M) and GDOT (Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A)) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 30.6%, cap $706.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CGBD leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while GDOT leads on capital efficiency (30.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CGBD?

Per CGBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001544206), Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $70.0M in net income, and -$204.6M in free cash flow against $2.79B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CGBD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CGBD last traded at $10.81 (+2.27% on volume of 344,533 shares), positioning the stock -1.73% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.00) and -3.05% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.15). Across its 52-week range of $9.95 to $13.28, CGBD sits at the 25.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.1% ($10.26 to $11.36).