Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
FRED Regime × Technicals: 26% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.1% realized swing band)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table
While CGBD currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.00) and Max Pain ($11.35) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $13.94.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) surged +2.27% to $10.81, trading at 26% of its 52-week range ($9.95 – $13.28). Stretched risk/reward at 11x P/E (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Upbound Group (UPBD) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +13.48% and +1.00%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CGBD today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CGBD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) ranks #852 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #614 by equity capitalization ($743.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CGBD leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while GDOT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.6% ROIC and — gross margin. GDOT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with CGBD at 50/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGBD
ACTIVE
Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. | D | 50/100 | 10.6x | — | 6.0% | +2.27% | $743.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| BUR Burford Capital Limited | D | 46/100 | 12.2x | — | 9.7% | +3.25% | $763.7M | /bur-vs-cgbd → |
| GDOT Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A) | C | 65/100 | — | — | 30.6% | +1.06% | $706.0M | /gdot-vs-cgbd → |
| LU Lufax Holding Ltd (each representing twenty (20) ) | D | 48/100 | — | — | — | -2.94% | $687.3M | /lu-vs-cgbd → |
| BTGO BitGo Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -0.17% | $680.6M | /btgo-vs-cgbd → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (CGBD) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $70.0M, operating cash flow of -$204.6M, and free cash flow of -$204.6M (-296.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, CGBD closed FY2025 with $2.79B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $70.0M | -$204.6M | -$204.6M | $2.79B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $89.0M | $104.3M | $104.3M | $1.93B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $92.3M | $230.6M | $230.6M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. (NASDAQ: CGBD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $10.81 (+2.27% 1D, market cap $743.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CGBD ranks #852 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CGBD carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.0%. By comparison, BUR (Burford Capital Limited) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 12.2x, ROIC 9.7%, cap $763.7M) and GDOT (Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A)) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 30.6%, cap $706.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CGBD leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while GDOT leads on capital efficiency (30.6% ROIC).
Per CGBD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001544206), Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $70.0M in net income, and -$204.6M in free cash flow against $2.79B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
CGBD last traded at $10.81 (+2.27% on volume of 344,533 shares), positioning the stock -1.73% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.00) and -3.05% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.15). Across its 52-week range of $9.95 to $13.28, CGBD sits at the 25.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.1% ($10.26 to $11.36).
Why CGBD Stock surged +2.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 11x P/E (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
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