ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

BUR // Burford Capital Limited

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001714174 ↗
Financials • Finance: Consumer Services
$3.49 ▲ +0.11 (+3.25%)
MKT CAP: $763.7M • VOL: 2.03M
BUR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 46/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
46 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 53% • VS 200D +0.6% • RSI 59.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 10 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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BUR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.07%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $3.45H $3.51L $3.38C $3.49VOL 2.62M
RES: $4.38SUP: $2.67SMA50: $3.81SMA200: $5.38
$10.35$8.32$6.29$4.26$2.23RES $4.38SUP $2.67$3.492026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
BUR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 33/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 9.7% return on invested capital within Financials (Finance: Consumer Services), balanced against a 12.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 56.2% operating margin and 9.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.7% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -24.3% paired with -3.84% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -24.3% // FCF YLD: -3.84%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 2/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 12.2x trailing P/E (11.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 12.2x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $3.49 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Finance: Consumer Services require continuous execution to defend 15.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 15.1% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 11.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 12.2x
FORWARD P/E 11.3x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -3.84%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 56.2%
NET MARGIN 15.1%
ROIC % 9.7%
REV GROWTH YOY -24.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.29
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 46.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // BURPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $3.19
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for BUR & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>