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Burford Capital Limited (BUR) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$3.49 +3.25% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.50

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $763.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.50 (+0.39%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BUR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BUR SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 9% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.9% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 52% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$3.58-16.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$3.00+12% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$3.36+3.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.49-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BUR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BUR currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.81) and Max Pain ($3.66) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.61.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BUR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BUR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

46.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE9% OF RANGE

L: $3$3.49H: $10

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on BUR

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (30)

9.7% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -3.84% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (50)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like BUR

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BUR)

✓Walkthrough of BUR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BUR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.07%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $3.45H $3.51L $3.38C $3.49VOL 2.62M

RES: $4.38SUP: $2.67SMA50: $3.81SMA200: $5.38

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BUR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BUR Butterfly Map → + Track BUR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -24.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BUR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BUR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BUR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BUR)

Financials Rank #919 of 1096 ⚔️ CGBD vs BUR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BUR vs. CGBD, WRLD, GDOT, CD)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Burford Capital Limited (BUR) ranks #919 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #608 by equity capitalization ($763.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CGBD leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while GDOT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.6% ROIC and — gross margin. WRLD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with BUR at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BUR ACTIVE Burford Capital Limited	D	46/100	12.2x	—	9.7%	+3.25%	$763.7M	Benchmark Subject
CGBD Carlyle Secured Lending Inc.	D	50/100	10.6x	—	6.0%	+2.27%	$743.8M	/cgbd-vs-bur →
WRLD World Acceptance Corporation	C+	66/100	23.7x	—	9.8%	+1.02%	$820.3M	/wrld-vs-bur →
GDOT Green Dot Corporation $0.001 par value (Class A)	C	65/100	—	—	30.6%	+1.06%	$706.0M	/gdot-vs-bur →
CD Chaince Digital Holdings Inc.	E	27/100	—	—	-7.2%	-17.60%	$829.4M	/cd-vs-bur →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001714174

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Burford Capital Limited (BUR) reported GAAP revenue of $413.4M (-24.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $546.1M , and -62.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $62.6M, operating cash flow of -$29.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.3M (-113.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, BUR closed FY2025 with $6.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$413.4M	$62.6M	-$29.0M	-$29.3M	$6.64B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$546.1M	$146.5M	$216.7M	$216.1M	$6.18B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.09B	$610.5M	-$274.7M	-$274.7M	—	—

3. BUR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BUR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Burford Capital Limited (NYSE: BUR) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $3.49 (+3.25% 1D, market cap $763.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BUR ranks #919 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BUR compare to CGBD and WRLD in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), BUR carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, CGBD (Carlyle Secured Lending Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 10.6x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $743.8M) and WRLD (World Acceptance Corporation) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 23.7x, ROIC 9.8%, cap $820.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CGBD leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while GDOT leads on capital efficiency (30.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BUR?

Per BUR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001714174), Burford Capital Limited generated $413.4M in revenue (-24.3% YoY), $62.6M in net income, and -$29.3M in free cash flow against $6.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BUR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BUR last traded at $3.49 (+3.25% on volume of 2,026,980 shares), positioning the stock -8.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.81) and -35.13% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.38). Across its 52-week range of $2.86 to $10.10, BUR sits at the 8.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.9% ($3.11 to $3.87).

BUR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell BUR stock right now?

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 46/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 12x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is BUR's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

BUR's 12-month base price target is $3.3 (range $2.57 to $10.61), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: BUR RQD Cockpit BUR 12M Forecast BUR Earnings & Move BUR Dividends & DRIP BUR Insiders & 13F BUR Whale Options BUR Profit Sankey BUR News & Why