ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
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BLKB // Blackbaud Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001280058 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software
$53.55 ▲ +0.84 (+1.59%)
MKT CAP: $2.37B • VOL: 403.1K
BLKB // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // D (RQD 51) -> C- (RQD 61)
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
61 / 100 +10D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
16 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 68% • VS 200D +27.8% • RSI 60.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +10.9% • P/E 19.2x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.03 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.14
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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BLKB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +42.46%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $52.51H $53.55L $52.51C $53.55VOL 510.0K
RES: $57.82SUP: $46.19SMA50: $47.30SMA200: $41.24
$58.82$49.81$40.80$31.79$22.78RES $57.82SUP $46.19$53.552026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
BLKB // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 47/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Blackbaud Inc. (BLKB) exhibits 58.8% gross margins and 13.3% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 17.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 58.8% gross profitability converts into 16.9% operating margin and 13.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 13.3% // GM: 58.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -2.3% paired with 10.87% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -2.3% // FCF YLD: 10.87%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.23 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.23 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 20.6x trailing P/E (19.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 20.6x // EV/EBITDA: 17.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $53.55 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend 10.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 10.2% // D/E: 8.50x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 19.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 20.6x
FORWARD P/E 19.2x
EV / EBITDA 17.3x
FCF YIELD 10.87%
GROSS MARGIN 58.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 16.9%
NET MARGIN 10.2%
ROIC % 13.3%
REV GROWTH YOY -2.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.56
DEBT / EQUITY 8.50x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 60.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // BLKBPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $49.00
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>