ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AEBI // Aebi Schmidt Holding AG

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0002048519 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Auto Manufacturing
$11.43 ▲ +0.04 (+0.35%)
MKT CAP: $887.0M • VOL: 173.0K
AEBI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 38/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
38 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
4 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -109.5% vs NI -68.3% • ROIC-WACC -3.5% • Z 1.62
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 73% • VS 200D +8.4% • RSI 56.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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AEBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.64%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $11.43H $11.53L $11.24C $11.43VOL 156.2K
RES: $16.95SUP: $9.35SMA50: $11.61SMA200: $12.40
$15.28$13.91$12.55$11.18$9.82RES $16.95SUP $9.35$11.432026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
AEBI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 42/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) exhibits 19.9% gross margins and 4.6% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Auto Manufacturing), balanced against a 15.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 19.9% gross profitability converts into 4.8% operating margin and 4.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 4.6% // GM: 19.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +40.6% paired with -0.59% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +40.6% // FCF YLD: -0.59%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.62 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.62 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 91.1x trailing P/E (76.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 91.1x // EV/EBITDA: 15.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $11.43 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Auto Manufacturing require continuous execution to defend 0.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.6% // D/E: 0.67x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 76.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 91.1x
FORWARD P/E 76.5x
EV / EBITDA 15.7x
FCF YIELD -0.59%
GROSS MARGIN 19.9%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.8%
NET MARGIN 0.6%
ROIC % 4.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +40.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.13
DEBT / EQUITY 0.67x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.51%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 51.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AEBIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $10.46
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>