Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / AEBI

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Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$11.43 +0.35% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.42

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $887.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.42 (-0.13%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AEBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AEBI SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (32% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 36% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$11.02+0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$11.09-0.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$11.05+3.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$11.43-7.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (30) → D- (38)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AEBI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AEBI currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.61) and Max Pain ($12.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.76.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AEBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AEBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

51.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.62>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE36% OF RANGE

L: $9$11.43H: $16

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 4 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AEBI

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (20)

4.6% ROIC with 19.9% gross margin and -0.59% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (35)

Altman-Z 1.62 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (45)

16/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AEBI

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Priced at 91x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AEBI)

✓Walkthrough of AEBI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AEBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.64%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $11.43H $11.53L $11.24C $11.43VOL 156.2K

RES: $16.95SUP: $9.35SMA50: $11.61SMA200: $12.40

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AEBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AEBI Butterfly Map → + Track AEBI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +40.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AEBI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AEBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AEBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AEBI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #851 of 1011 ⚔️ PSNY vs AEBI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AEBI vs. PSNY, LCID, LOT, AIIO)

Industry: Auto Manufacturing (28 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) ranks #851 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #527 by equity capitalization ($887.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AEBI leads on earnings valuation at 91.1x trailing P/E, while AEBI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.6% ROIC and 19.9% gross margin. PSNY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with AEBI at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AEBI ACTIVE Aebi Schmidt Holding AG	D-	38/100	91.1x	19.9%	4.6%	+0.35%	$887.0M	Benchmark Subject
PSNY Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Class A ADS	C-	60/100	—	—	—	+0.75%	$663.7M	/psny-vs-aebi →
LCID Lucid Group Inc.	E	16/100	—	-30.0%	-35.0%	-6.16%	$1.26B	/lcid-vs-aebi →
LOT Lotus Technology Inc.	E	28/100	—	8.7%	-35.0%	-5.93%	$274.8M	/lot-vs-aebi →
AIIO Robo.ai Inc. (Class B)	E	34/100	—	62.5%	-35.0%	-3.62%	$161.2M	/aiio-vs-aebi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002048519

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.53B (+40.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.09B , and +50.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $9.7M, operating cash flow of $9.0M, and free cash flow of -$5.2M (-109.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AEBI closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $548.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.62, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.53B	$9.7M	$9.0M	-$5.2M	$2.01B	$548.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.09B	$30.7M	$68.8M	$55.2M	$1.09B	$376.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.02B	$11.2M	$30.1M	$30.1M	—	—

3. AEBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AEBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (NASDAQ: AEBI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $11.43 (+0.35% 1D, market cap $887.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AEBI ranks #851 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AEBI compare to PSNY and LCID in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Manufacturing), AEBI carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 91.1x, gross margin of 19.9%, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, PSNY (Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Class A ADS) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $663.7M) and LCID (Lucid Group Inc.) posts a E grade (16/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AEBI leads on earnings multiple (91.1x) while AEBI leads on capital efficiency (4.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEBI?

Per AEBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002048519), Aebi Schmidt Holding AG generated $1.53B in revenue (+40.6% YoY), $9.7M in net income, and -$5.2M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $548.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AEBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AEBI last traded at $11.43 (+0.35% on volume of 173,015 shares), positioning the stock -1.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.61) and -7.82% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.40). Across its 52-week range of $8.91 to $15.96, AEBI sits at the 35.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($10.64 to $12.22).

AEBI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AEBI stock right now?

Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 38/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 91x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AEBI's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AEBI's 12-month base price target is $10.4 (range $8.11 to $16.76), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: AEBI RQD Cockpit AEBI 12M Forecast AEBI Earnings & Move AEBI Dividends & DRIP AEBI Insiders & 13F AEBI Whale Options AEBI Profit Sankey AEBI News & Why