MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why AEBI Stock advanced +0.35% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$11.43 +0.35% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.42
Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $887.0M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.42 (-0.13%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AEBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AEBI SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (32% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.9% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (29% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 36% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$11.02+0.6% Next Q
30
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$11.09-0.4% Next Q
33
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$11.05+3.4% Next Q
35
CurrentGrade D-$11.43-7.8% Hist 90D α
38
Trajectory: E (30) → D- (38)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AEBI Turnaround Squeeze
While AEBI currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.61) and Max Pain ($12.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.76.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AEBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AEBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AEBI Stock advanced +0.35% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) advanced +0.35% to $11.43, trading at 36% of its 52-week range ($8.91 – $15.96). Stretched risk/reward at 91x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 36% of its 52-week range ($8.91 – $15.96) with RSI-14 at 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.9% around $11.43 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 19.9% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live AEBI Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AEBI)
- ✓Walkthrough of AEBI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
AEBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.64%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $11.43H $11.53L $11.24C $11.43VOL 156.2K
RES: $16.95SUP: $9.35SMA50: $11.61SMA200: $12.40
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AEBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +40.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AEBI today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AEBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AEBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AEBI)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #851 of 1011
⚔️ PSNY vs AEBI Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AEBI vs. PSNY, LCID, LOT, AIIO)
Industry: Auto Manufacturing (28 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) ranks #851 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #527 by equity capitalization ($887.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AEBI leads on earnings valuation at 91.1x trailing P/E, while AEBI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.6% ROIC and 19.9% gross margin. PSNY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with AEBI at 38/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEBI
ACTIVE
Aebi Schmidt Holding AG | D- | 38/100 | 91.1x | 19.9% | 4.6% | +0.35% | $887.0M | Benchmark Subject |
| PSNY Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Class A ADS | C- | 60/100 | — | — | — | +0.75% | $663.7M | /psny-vs-aebi → |
| LCID Lucid Group Inc. | E | 16/100 | — | -30.0% | -35.0% | -6.16% | $1.26B | /lcid-vs-aebi → |
| LOT Lotus Technology Inc. | E | 28/100 | — | 8.7% | -35.0% | -5.93% | $274.8M | /lot-vs-aebi → |
| AIIO Robo.ai Inc. (Class B) | E | 34/100 | — | 62.5% | -35.0% | -3.62% | $161.2M | /aiio-vs-aebi → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002048519In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (AEBI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.53B (+40.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.09B , and +50.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $9.7M, operating cash flow of $9.0M, and free cash flow of -$5.2M (-109.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AEBI closed FY2025 with $2.01B in total assets against $548.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.62, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.53B | $9.7M | $9.0M | -$5.2M | $2.01B | $548.0M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.09B | $30.7M | $68.8M | $55.2M | $1.09B | $376.6M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.02B | $11.2M | $30.1M | $30.1M | — | — |
3. AEBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AEBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Aebi Schmidt Holding AG (NASDAQ: AEBI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $11.43 (+0.35% 1D, market cap $887.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AEBI ranks #851 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AEBI compare to PSNY and LCID in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Manufacturing), AEBI carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 91.1x, gross margin of 19.9%, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, PSNY (Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Class A ADS) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $663.7M) and LCID (Lucid Group Inc.) posts a E grade (16/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AEBI leads on earnings multiple (91.1x) while AEBI leads on capital efficiency (4.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEBI?
Per AEBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002048519), Aebi Schmidt Holding AG generated $1.53B in revenue (+40.6% YoY), $9.7M in net income, and -$5.2M in free cash flow against $2.01B in total assets and $548.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AEBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AEBI last traded at $11.43 (+0.35% on volume of 173,015 shares), positioning the stock -1.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.61) and -7.82% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.40). Across its 52-week range of $8.91 to $15.96, AEBI sits at the 35.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($10.64 to $12.22).
AEBI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AEBI stock moving today?
Why AEBI Stock advanced +0.35% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 91x P/E (5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.