ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

XPON // Expion Energy Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001894954 ↗
Industrials • Industrial Machinery/Components
$3.58 ▼ -0.47 (-11.60%)
MKT CAP: $4.1M • VOL: 39.2K
XPON // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // D (RQD 50) -> D- (RQD 35)
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
35 / 100 -15D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
6 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF +35.7% vs NI +53.7% • ROIC-WACC -45.1% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
5 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 8% • VS 200D -36.3% • RSI 49.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
8 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.06 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.17
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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XPON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -57.93%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $3.85H $4.05L $3.58C $3.58VOL 22.1K
RES: $5.11SUP: $3.48SMA50: $4.84SMA200: $6.36
$13.47$10.57$7.67$4.77$1.87RES $5.11SUP $3.48$3.582026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
XPON // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 50/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Expion Energy Inc. (XPON) exhibits 13.9% gross margins and -35.0% return on invested capital within Industrials (Industrial Machinery/Components), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 13.9% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -35.0% // GM: 13.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +71.6% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +71.6% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $3.58 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Machinery/Components require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.03x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN 13.9%
OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%
NET MARGIN -60.0%
ROIC % -35.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +71.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 0.03x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // XPONPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $3.28
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for XPON & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>