ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

VCEL // Vericel Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000887359 ↗
Health Care • Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)
$42.91 ▲ +1.82 (+4.43%)
MKT CAP: $2.20B • VOL: 544.9K
VCEL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 67/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
67 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +200% vs NI +59.4% • ROIC-WACC -5.2% • Z 9.94
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 70% • VS 200D +4.7% • RSI 66.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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VCEL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.55%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $43.02H $43.02L $40.01C $42.91VOL 598.7K
RES: $43.47SUP: $40.08SMA50: $40.58SMA200: $38.65
$50.54$45.48$40.42$35.35$30.29RES $43.47SUP $40.08$42.912026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
VCEL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Vericel Corporation (VCEL) exhibits 74.4% gross margins and 3.4% return on invested capital within Health Care (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), balanced against a 61.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 74.4% gross profitability converts into 4.0% operating margin and 3.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.4% // GM: 74.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +16.5% paired with 1.13% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +16.5% // FCF YLD: 1.13%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 9.94 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 9.94 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 133.0x trailing P/E (111.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 133.0x // EV/EBITDA: 61.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $42.91 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) require continuous execution to defend 6.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 6.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 111.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 133.0x
FORWARD P/E 111.7x
EV / EBITDA 61.4x
FCF YIELD 1.13%
GROSS MARGIN 74.4%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.0%
NET MARGIN 6.0%
ROIC % 3.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +16.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.32
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 46.2
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // VCELPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $39.26
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>