ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

UFCS // United Fire Group Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000101199 ↗
Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers
$56.99 ▲ +0.67 (+1.19%)
MKT CAP: $1.46B • VOL: 84.5K
UFCS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 70/100 [B-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B-
RQD CONFIDENCE
70 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -20.7% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +3.6% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +18.4% • P/E 11.5x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did UFCS's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever UFCS is Upgraded or Downgraded.

UFCS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +41.34%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $57.47H $57.94L $56.56C $56.99VOL 92.4K
RES: $58.46SUP: $52.43SMA50: $55.02SMA200: $46.60
$59.87$52.96$46.05$39.14$32.23RES $58.46SUP $52.43$56.992026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
UFCS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 53/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 12.6% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 12.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 12.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 12.6% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +10.6% paired with 18.41% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +10.6% // FCF YLD: 18.41%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 12.4x trailing P/E (11.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 12.4x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $56.99 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 8.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 8.5% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 11.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 12.4x
FORWARD P/E 11.5x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 18.41%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN 8.5%
ROIC % 12.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +10.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.60
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.11%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 56.4
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // UFCSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $52.15
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for UFCS & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>