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United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$56.99 +1.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $57.25

United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.46B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on UFCS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UFCS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, United Fire Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UFCS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $56.99 (+1.19% 1D, market cap $1.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, UFCS ranks #103 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UFCS compare to SAFT and UVE in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), UFCS carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.6%. By comparison, SAFT (Safety Insurance Group Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 15.4x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $1.53B) and UVE (UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 33.2%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UVE leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while UVE leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UFCS?

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Per UFCS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000101199), United Fire Group Inc. generated $1.39B in revenue (+10.6% YoY), $118.2M in net income, and $269.7M in free cash flow against $3.84B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $57.25 (+0.45%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 19.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UFCS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UFCS SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.2% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 8 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$56.00+0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$56.11+2.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$57.58-1% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$56.99+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UFCS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, UFCS faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($55.10) or 200D SMA ($46.71) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($60.32) toward Bear Floor ($46.73).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UFCS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UFCS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

57.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE96% OF RANGE

L: $30$56.99H: $58

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 32 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on UFCS

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

12.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 18.41% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (77)

32/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like UFCS

✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (UFCS Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

UFCS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +45.27%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $56.32H $56.99L $56.32C $56.99VOL 84.5K

RES: $58.50SUP: $52.49SMA50: $55.10SMA200: $46.71

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UFCS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UFCS Butterfly Map → + Track UFCS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UFCS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UFCS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UFCS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UFCS)

Financials Rank #103 of 1096 ⚔️ SAFT vs UFCS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (UFCS vs. SAFT, UVE, ASIC, HMN)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) ranks #103 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #496 by equity capitalization ($1.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UVE leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while UVE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. SAFT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with UFCS at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UFCS ACTIVE United Fire Group Inc.	B-	71/100	12.4x	—	12.6%	+1.19%	$1.46B	Benchmark Subject
SAFT Safety Insurance Group Inc.	B	74/100	15.4x	—	11.1%	0.00%	$1.53B	/saft-vs-ufcs →
UVE UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC	B	73/100	7.2x	—	33.2%	+3.44%	$1.32B	/uve-vs-ufcs →
ASIC Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings	C+	66/100	15.8x	—	12.0%	+5.08%	$1.17B	/asic-vs-ufcs →
HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation	D+	56/100	11.6x	—	10.9%	+1.79%	$1.89B	/hmn-vs-ufcs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000101199

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) reported GAAP revenue of $1.39B (+10.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.25B , and +26.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $118.2M, operating cash flow of $269.7M, and free cash flow of $269.7M (-20.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, UFCS closed FY2025 with $3.84B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.39B	$118.2M	$269.7M	$269.7M	$3.84B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.25B	$31.4M	$340.3M	$340.3M	$3.49B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.10B	-$29.7M	$171.7M	$171.7M	—	—

3. UFCS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UFCS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does UFCS compare to SAFT and UVE in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UFCS?

Where is UFCS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UFCS last traded at $56.99 (+1.19% on volume of 84,458 shares), positioning the stock +3.43% above its 50-day simple moving average ($55.10) and +22.01% above its 200-day simple moving average ($46.71). Across its 52-week range of $29.85 to $58.20, UFCS sits at the 95.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.2% ($54.03 to $59.95).

UFCS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell UFCS stock right now?

United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy — BUY) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

What is UFCS's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

UFCS's 12-month base price target is $60.32 (range $46.73 to $71.18), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: UFCS RQD Cockpit UFCS 12M Forecast UFCS Earnings & Move UFCS Dividends & DRIP UFCS Insiders & 13F UFCS Whale Options UFCS Profit Sankey UFCS News & Why