MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why UFCS Stock advanced +1.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$56.99 +1.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $57.25
United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
ROARABLE B- • BUY
Cap $1.46B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $57.25 (+0.45%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 19.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UFCS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UFCS SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 96% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$55.14+2.4% Next Q
62
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$56.44+1.7% Next Q
65
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$57.38-0.7% Next Q
67
CurrentGrade B-$56.99+6.6% Hist 90D α
70
Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UFCS Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, UFCS faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($55.02) or 200D SMA ($46.60) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($60.07) toward Bear Floor ($46.73).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UFCS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UFCS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why UFCS Stock advanced +1.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) advanced +1.19% to $56.99, trading at 96% of its 52-week range ($29.92 – $58.2). High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 96% of its 52-week range ($29.92 – $58.2) with RSI-14 at 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.7% around $56.99 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B- (Buy) backed by 52% gross margin and $269.7M annual free cash flow.
Live UFCS Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (UFCS Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
UFCS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +41.34%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $57.47H $57.94L $56.56C $56.99VOL 92.4K
RES: $58.46SUP: $52.43SMA50: $55.02SMA200: $46.60
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
UFCS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +10.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UFCS today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UFCS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UFCS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UFCS)
Financials Rank #148 of 1096
⚔️ SAFT vs UFCS Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (UFCS vs. SAFT, UVE, ASIC, HMN)
Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) ranks #148 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #496 by equity capitalization ($1.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UVE leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while UVE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. UVE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with UFCS at 70/100 (B-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFCS
ACTIVE
United Fire Group Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 12.4x | — | 12.6% | +1.19% | $1.46B | Benchmark Subject |
| SAFT Safety Insurance Group Inc. | C | 64/100 | 15.4x | — | 11.1% | 0.00% | $1.53B | /saft-vs-ufcs → |
| UVE UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC | B | 74/100 | 7.2x | — | 33.2% | +3.44% | $1.32B | /uve-vs-ufcs → |
| ASIC Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings | C+ | 69/100 | 15.8x | — | 12.0% | +5.08% | $1.17B | /asic-vs-ufcs → |
| HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation | C- | 61/100 | 11.6x | — | 10.9% | +1.79% | $1.89B | /hmn-vs-ufcs → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000101199In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) reported GAAP revenue of $1.39B (+10.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.25B , and +26.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $118.2M, operating cash flow of $269.7M, and free cash flow of $269.7M (-20.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, UFCS closed FY2025 with $3.84B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.39B | $118.2M | $269.7M | $269.7M | $3.84B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.25B | $31.4M | $340.3M | $340.3M | $3.49B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.10B | -$29.7M | $171.7M | $171.7M | — | — |
3. UFCS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs UFCS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, United Fire Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UFCS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $56.99 (+1.19% 1D, market cap $1.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, UFCS ranks #148 in composite RQD confidence.
How does UFCS compare to SAFT and UVE in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), UFCS carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.6%. By comparison, SAFT (Safety Insurance Group Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 15.4x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $1.53B) and UVE (UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 33.2%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UVE leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while UVE leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UFCS?
Per UFCS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000101199), United Fire Group Inc. generated $1.39B in revenue (+10.6% YoY), $118.2M in net income, and $269.7M in free cash flow against $3.84B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is UFCS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
UFCS last traded at $56.99 (+1.19% on volume of 84,458 shares), positioning the stock +3.58% above its 50-day simple moving average ($55.02) and +22.30% above its 200-day simple moving average ($46.60). Across its 52-week range of $29.92 to $58.20, UFCS sits at the 95.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($53.74 to $60.24).
UFCS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is UFCS stock moving today?
Why UFCS Stock advanced +1.19% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support.