Stock Ratings / Financials / UFCS / options

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United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$56.99 +1.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $57.25

United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.46B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $57.25 (+0.45%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 19.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UFCS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY UFCS SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 96% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-8 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$55.14+2.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$56.44+1.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$57.38-0.7% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$56.99+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UFCS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, UFCS faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($55.02) or 200D SMA ($46.60) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($60.07) toward Bear Floor ($46.73).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UFCS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “UFCS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±5.7%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (UFCS)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for UFCS.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating UFCS & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on UFCS
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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UFCS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +41.34%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $57.47H $57.94L $56.56C $56.99VOL 92.4K

RES: $58.46SUP: $52.43SMA50: $55.02SMA200: $46.60

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UFCS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UFCS Butterfly Map → + Track UFCS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UFCS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UFCS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UFCS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UFCS)

Financials Rank #148 of 1096 ⚔️ SAFT vs UFCS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (UFCS vs. SAFT, UVE, ASIC, HMN)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) ranks #148 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #496 by equity capitalization ($1.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UVE leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while UVE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. UVE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with UFCS at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
UFCS ACTIVE United Fire Group Inc.	B-	70/100	12.4x	—	12.6%	+1.19%	$1.46B	Benchmark Subject
SAFT Safety Insurance Group Inc.	C	64/100	15.4x	—	11.1%	0.00%	$1.53B	/saft-vs-ufcs →
UVE UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC	B	74/100	7.2x	—	33.2%	+3.44%	$1.32B	/uve-vs-ufcs →
ASIC Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings	C+	69/100	15.8x	—	12.0%	+5.08%	$1.17B	/asic-vs-ufcs →
HMN Horace Mann Educators Corporation	C-	61/100	11.6x	—	10.9%	+1.79%	$1.89B	/hmn-vs-ufcs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000101199

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) reported GAAP revenue of $1.39B (+10.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.25B , and +26.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $118.2M, operating cash flow of $269.7M, and free cash flow of $269.7M (-20.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, UFCS closed FY2025 with $3.84B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.39B	$118.2M	$269.7M	$269.7M	$3.84B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.25B	$31.4M	$340.3M	$340.3M	$3.49B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.10B	-$29.7M	$171.7M	$171.7M	—	—

3. UFCS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UFCS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, United Fire Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UFCS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $56.99 (+1.19% 1D, market cap $1.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, UFCS ranks #148 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UFCS compare to SAFT and UVE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), UFCS carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.6%. By comparison, SAFT (Safety Insurance Group Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 15.4x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $1.53B) and UVE (UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 33.2%, cap $1.32B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UVE leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while UVE leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UFCS?

Per UFCS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000101199), United Fire Group Inc. generated $1.39B in revenue (+10.6% YoY), $118.2M in net income, and $269.7M in free cash flow against $3.84B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UFCS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UFCS last traded at $56.99 (+1.19% on volume of 84,458 shares), positioning the stock +3.58% above its 50-day simple moving average ($55.02) and +22.30% above its 200-day simple moving average ($46.60). Across its 52-week range of $29.92 to $58.20, UFCS sits at the 95.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.7% ($53.74 to $60.24).

UFCS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is UFCS's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for UFCS.

Direct Sub-Reports: UFCS RQD Cockpit UFCS 12M Forecast UFCS Earnings & Move UFCS Dividends & DRIP UFCS Insiders & 13F UFCS Whale Options UFCS Profit Sankey UFCS News & Why