ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TWFG // TWFG Inc. (Class A)

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0002007596 ↗
Financials • Specialty Insurers
$27.15 ▼ -0.13 (-0.48%)
MKT CAP: $1.47B • VOL: 117.2K
TWFG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 67/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
67 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF +42.6% vs NI -100% • ROIC-WACC +30.8% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +3.6% • P/E N/A • F-SCORE 4/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did TWFG's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever TWFG is Upgraded or Downgraded.

TWFG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +46.12%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $27.50H $27.50L $26.38C $27.15VOL 227.1K
RES: $29.06SUP: $22.76SMA50: $26.75SMA200: $23.10
$32.27$28.25$24.23$20.21$16.19RES $29.06SUP $22.76$27.152026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
TWFG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 77/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 39.8% return on invested capital within Financials (Specialty Insurers), balanced against a 35.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 14.9% operating margin and 39.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 39.8% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +22.0% paired with 3.62% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +22.0% // FCF YLD: 3.62%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 35.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $27.15 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Specialty Insurers require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 35.2x
FCF YIELD 3.62%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 14.9%
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % 39.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +22.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 54.0
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TWFGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $24.84
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TWFG & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>