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TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$27.15 -0.48% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.07

TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.47B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.07 (-0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 21.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TWFG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TWFG SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 21.4% FCF Margin ($53.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 72% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$24.76+2.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$25.37+11.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$28.29-4% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$27.15+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TWFG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, TWFG faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($26.75) or 200D SMA ($23.10) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($28.25) toward Bear Floor ($22.04).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TWFG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TWFG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

5430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE72% OF RANGE

L: $17$27.15H: $31

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: ARQD 18 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on TWFG

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (90)

39.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 3.62% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (65)

24/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TWFG

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TWFG Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TWFG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +46.12%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $27.50H $27.50L $26.38C $27.15VOL 227.1K

RES: $29.06SUP: $22.76SMA50: $26.75SMA200: $23.10

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TWFG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TWFG Butterfly Map → + Track TWFG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

32.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TWFG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TWFG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TWFG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TWFG)

Financials Rank #248 of 1096 ⚔️ STC vs TWFG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TWFG vs. STC, GSHD, OIG, LIFE)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) ranks #248 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #495 by equity capitalization ($1.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STC leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while LIFE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 40.6% ROIC and — gross margin. GSHD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with TWFG at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TWFG ACTIVE TWFG Inc. (Class A)	C+	67/100	—	—	39.8%	-0.48%	$1.47B	Benchmark Subject
STC Stewart Information Services Corporation	D+	57/100	12.0x	—	5.6%	+2.66%	$1.39B	/stc-vs-twfg →
GSHD Goosehead Insurance Inc. (Class A)	C+	69/100	60.7x	—	36.9%	+2.74%	$1.69B	/gshd-vs-twfg →
OIG Orion180 Insurance Group Inc. (Class A)	D+	53/100	—	—	—	+3.25%	$974.5M	/oig-vs-twfg →
LIFE Ethos Technologies Inc. (Class A)	C-	61/100	39.8x	—	40.6%	+1.85%	$2.83B	/life-vs-twfg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002007596

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) reported GAAP revenue of $248.5M (+22.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $203.8M , and +44.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $53.5M, and free cash flow of $53.1M (+42.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TWFG closed FY2025 with $372.3M in total assets against $2.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$248.5M	$0	$53.5M	$53.1M	$372.3M	$2.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$203.8M	$2.7M	$40.5M	$37.3M	$323.4M	$4.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$172.0M	$0	$30.2M	$30.2M	—	—

3. TWFG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TWFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, TWFG Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: TWFG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $27.15 (-0.48% 1D, market cap $1.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TWFG ranks #248 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TWFG compare to STC and GSHD in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), TWFG carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 39.8%. By comparison, STC (Stewart Information Services Corporation) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $1.39B) and GSHD (Goosehead Insurance Inc. (Class A)) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 36.9%, cap $1.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STC leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while LIFE leads on capital efficiency (40.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TWFG?

Per TWFG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002007596), TWFG Inc. (Class A) generated $248.5M in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $53.1M in free cash flow against $372.3M in total assets and $2.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TWFG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TWFG last traded at $27.15 (-0.48% on volume of 117,192 shares), positioning the stock +1.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.75) and +17.53% above its 200-day simple moving average ($23.10). Across its 52-week range of $16.56 to $31.30, TWFG sits at the 71.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.3% ($24.63 to $29.67).

TWFG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell TWFG stock right now?

TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (40% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is TWFG's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TWFG's 12-month base price target is $28.25 (range $22.04 to $33.34), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: TWFG RQD Cockpit TWFG 12M Forecast TWFG Earnings & Move TWFG Dividends & DRIP TWFG Insiders & 13F TWFG Whale Options TWFG Profit Sankey TWFG News & Why