Why TWFG Stock slipped -0.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$27.15 -0.48% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.07

TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.47B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TWFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, TWFG Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: TWFG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $27.15 (-0.48% 1D, market cap $1.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TWFG ranks #248 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TWFG compare to STC and GSHD in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), TWFG carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 39.8%. By comparison, STC (Stewart Information Services Corporation) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $1.39B) and GSHD (Goosehead Insurance Inc. (Class A)) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 36.9%, cap $1.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STC leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while LIFE leads on capital efficiency (40.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TWFG?
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Per TWFG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002007596), TWFG Inc. (Class A) generated $248.5M in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $53.1M in free cash flow against $372.3M in total assets and $2.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $27.07 (-0.28%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 21.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk C
Cash (18)Whales (9)SEC (10)Macro (15)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target
$33 Bull$28 Base$22 Bear
📬 FREE TWFG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TWFG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TWFG SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 21.4% FCF Margin ($53.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 72% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 54 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$24.76+2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$25.37+11.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$28.29-4% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$27.15+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TWFG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, TWFG faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($26.75) or 200D SMA ($23.10) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($28.25) toward Bear Floor ($22.04).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TWFG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TWFG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TWFG Stock slipped -0.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) slipped -0.48% to $27.15, trading at 72% of its 52-week range ($16.56 – $31.3). Solid steady margins (40% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 72% of its 52-week range ($16.56 – $31.3) with RSI-14 at 54 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.3% around $27.15 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $53.1M annual free cash flow.
Live TWFG Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 11d ago
Top 3 Growth Stocks To Watch In October 2026

Artificial intelligence spending is still pulling huge orders through chip supply chains, with Japan’s September export data highlighting strong demand for semiconductors and AI related products. That kind of structural

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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TWFG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
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TWFG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +46.12%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $27.50H $27.50L $26.38C $27.15VOL 227.1K
RES: $29.06SUP: $22.76SMA50: $26.75SMA200: $23.10
$32.27$28.25$24.23$20.21$16.19RES $29.06SUP $22.76$27.152026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TWFG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
32.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +22.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TWFG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TWFG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TWFG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TWFG)

Financials Rank #248 of 1096 ⚔️ STC vs TWFG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TWFG vs. STC, GSHD, OIG, LIFE)

Industry: Specialty Insurers (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) ranks #248 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #495 by equity capitalization ($1.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STC leads on earnings valuation at 12.0x trailing P/E, while LIFE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 40.6% ROIC and — gross margin. GSHD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with TWFG at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TWFG ACTIVE
TWFG Inc. (Class A)
C+ 67/100 — — 39.8% -0.48% $1.47B Benchmark Subject
STC
Stewart Information Services Corporation
D+ 57/100 12.0x — 5.6% +2.66% $1.39B /stc-vs-twfg →
GSHD
Goosehead Insurance Inc. (Class A)
C+ 69/100 60.7x — 36.9% +2.74% $1.69B /gshd-vs-twfg →
OIG
Orion180 Insurance Group Inc. (Class A)
D+ 53/100 — — — +3.25% $974.5M /oig-vs-twfg →
LIFE
Ethos Technologies Inc. (Class A)
C- 61/100 39.8x — 40.6% +1.85% $2.83B /life-vs-twfg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002007596

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TWFG Inc. (Class A) (TWFG) reported GAAP revenue of $248.5M (+22.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $203.8M , and +44.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $53.5M, and free cash flow of $53.1M (+42.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, TWFG closed FY2025 with $372.3M in total assets against $2.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $248.5M $0 $53.5M $53.1M $372.3M $2.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $203.8M $2.7M $40.5M $37.3M $323.4M $4.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $172.0M $0 $30.2M $30.2M — —

3. TWFG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TWFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, TWFG Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: TWFG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $27.15 (-0.48% 1D, market cap $1.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TWFG ranks #248 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TWFG compare to STC and GSHD in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Specialty Insurers), TWFG carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 39.8%. By comparison, STC (Stewart Information Services Corporation) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 5.6%, cap $1.39B) and GSHD (Goosehead Insurance Inc. (Class A)) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 60.7x, ROIC 36.9%, cap $1.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STC leads on earnings multiple (12.0x) while LIFE leads on capital efficiency (40.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TWFG?

Per TWFG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002007596), TWFG Inc. (Class A) generated $248.5M in revenue (+22.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $53.1M in free cash flow against $372.3M in total assets and $2.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TWFG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TWFG last traded at $27.15 (-0.48% on volume of 117,192 shares), positioning the stock +1.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.75) and +17.53% above its 200-day simple moving average ($23.10). Across its 52-week range of $16.56 to $31.30, TWFG sits at the 71.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.3% ($24.63 to $29.67).

TWFG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is TWFG stock moving today?

Why TWFG Stock slipped -0.48% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (40% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

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