ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TPB // Turning Point Brands Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001290677 ↗
Consumer Staples • Tobacco
$68.81 ▲ +1.70 (+2.53%)
MKT CAP: $1.38B • VOL: 241.6K
TPB // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 68/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -29.8% vs NI +46.1% • ROIC-WACC +9.1% • Z 4.03
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did TPB's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever TPB is Upgraded or Downgraded.

TPB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.71%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $69.00H $69.43L $66.58C $68.81VOL 421.0K
RES: $85.78SUP: $47.61SMA50: $67.37SMA200: $86.67
$102.6$89.46$76.34$63.22$50.10RES $85.78SUP $47.61$68.812026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
TPB // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 55/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) exhibits 57.1% gross margins and 17.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Tobacco), balanced against a 13.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 57.1% gross profitability converts into 20.6% operating margin and 17.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 17.0% // GM: 57.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with 3.18% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: 3.18%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.03 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.03 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 23.7x trailing P/E (22.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 23.7x // EV/EBITDA: 13.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $68.81 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Tobacco require continuous execution to defend 12.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.6% // D/E: 0.79x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 22.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 23.7x
FORWARD P/E 22.0x
EV / EBITDA 13.6x
FCF YIELD 3.18%
GROSS MARGIN 57.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 20.6%
NET MARGIN 12.6%
ROIC % 17.0%
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.90
DEBT / EQUITY 0.79x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.40%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 57.2
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TPBPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $62.96
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TPB & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>