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Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$68.81 +2.53% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.38B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TPB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

57.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

4.03>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE16% OF RANGE

L: $54$68.81H: $147

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (57% profit margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 30 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on TPB

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

17.0% ROIC with 57.1% gross margin and 3.18% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 4.03 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (67)

26/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TPB

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TPB Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TPB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.71%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $69.00H $69.43L $66.58C $68.81VOL 421.0K

RES: $85.78SUP: $47.61SMA50: $67.37SMA200: $86.67

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TPB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TPB Butterfly Map → + Track TPB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

17.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TPB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TPB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TPB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TPB)

Consumer Staples Rank #19 of 146 ⚔️ AIIR vs TPB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (TPB vs. AIIR, AGRO, FLO, DMC)

Industry: Tobacco (2 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) ranks #19 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #64 by equity capitalization ($1.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DMC leads on earnings valuation at 14.0x trailing P/E, while TPB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.0% ROIC and 57.1% gross margin. FLO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with TPB at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TPB ACTIVE Turning Point Brands Inc.	C+	68/100	23.7x	57.1%	17.0%	+2.53%	$1.38B	Benchmark Subject
AIIR Air Global PLC	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-2.13%	$1.18B	/aiir-vs-tpb →
AGRO Adecoagro S.A.	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-1.12%	$1.40B	/agro-vs-tpb →
FLO Flowers Foods Inc.	B-	70/100	15.6x	—	5.2%	+0.65%	$1.31B	/flo-vs-tpb →
DMC Del Monte Corporation	D+	58/100	14.0x	9.2%	5.5%	-4.24%	$1.31B	/dmc-vs-tpb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001290677

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) reported GAAP revenue of $463.1M (+28.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $360.7M ) , GAAP net income of $58.2M, operating cash flow of $57.4M, and free cash flow of $43.8M (-29.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, TPB closed FY2025 with $763.8M in total assets against $293.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.03, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$463.1M	$58.2M	$57.4M	$43.8M	$763.8M	$293.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$360.7M	$39.8M	$67.1M	$62.4M	$493.4M	$248.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$38.5M	$66.9M	$66.9M	—	—

3. TPB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TPB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Turning Point Brands Inc. (NYSE: TPB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $68.81 (+2.53% 1D, market cap $1.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, TPB ranks #19 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TPB compare to AIIR and AGRO in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Tobacco), TPB carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 23.7x, gross margin of 57.1%, and ROIC of 17.0%. By comparison, AIIR (Air Global PLC) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.18B) and AGRO (Adecoagro S.A.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DMC leads on earnings multiple (14.0x) while TPB leads on capital efficiency (17.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPB?

Per TPB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001290677), Turning Point Brands Inc. generated $463.1M in revenue (+28.4% YoY), $58.2M in net income, and $43.8M in free cash flow against $763.8M in total assets and $293.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TPB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TPB last traded at $68.81 (+2.53% on volume of 241,555 shares), positioning the stock +2.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($67.37) and -20.61% below its 200-day simple moving average ($86.67). Across its 52-week range of $54.17 to $146.90, TPB sits at the 15.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($62.27 to $75.35).

TPB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell TPB stock right now?

Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 57% profit margin (17% return on capital), mixed timing at 24x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is TPB's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TPB's 12-month base price target is $71.91 (range $56.09 to $154.25), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: TPB RQD Cockpit TPB 12M Forecast TPB Earnings & Move TPB Dividends & DRIP TPB Insiders & 13F TPB Whale Options TPB Profit Sankey TPB News & Why