MARKET WIREReuters • 4h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
Why TPB Stock surged +2.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$68.81 +2.53% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $68.99
Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.38B
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Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TPB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is TPB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Turning Point Brands Inc. (NYSE: TPB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $68.81 (+2.53% 1D, market cap $1.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, TPB ranks #19 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does TPB compare to AIIR and AGRO in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Tobacco), TPB carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 23.7x, gross margin of 57.1%, and ROIC of 17.0%. By comparison, AIIR (Air Global PLC) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.18B) and AGRO (Adecoagro S.A.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DMC leads on earnings multiple (14.0x) while TPB leads on capital efficiency (17.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPB?
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Per TPB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001290677), Turning Point Brands Inc. generated $463.1M in revenue (+28.4% YoY), $58.2M in net income, and $43.8M in free cash flow against $763.8M in total assets and $293.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $69.00 (+0.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 9.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TPB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TPB SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (24% of score)
Altman Z-Score 4.03 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$57.38+9.2% Next Q
60
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$62.65+2.1% Next Q
63
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$63.99+7.5% Next Q
65
CurrentGrade C+$68.81+1.8% Hist 90D α
68
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TPB Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, TPB faces multiple-compression risk if 23.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 54.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($67.37) or 200D SMA ($86.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($71.91) toward Bear Floor ($56.09).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TPB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TPB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TPB Stock surged +2.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) surged +2.53% to $68.81, trading at 16% of its 52-week range ($54.17 – $146.9). Solid 57% profit margin (17% return on capital), mixed timing at 24x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 16% of its 52-week range ($54.17 – $146.9) with RSI-14 at 57.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.5% around $68.81 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 57.1% gross margin and $43.8M annual free cash flow.
Live TPB Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 4h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
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MARKET WIRECNBC • 9h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 9h ago
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RISK WATCHReuters • 10h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 12h ago
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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TPB Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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TPB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.71%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $69.00H $69.43L $66.58C $68.81VOL 421.0K
RES: $85.78SUP: $47.61SMA50: $67.37SMA200: $86.67
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TPB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
17.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TPB today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TPB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TPB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TPB)
Consumer Staples Rank #19 of 146
⚔️ AIIR vs TPB Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (TPB vs. AIIR, AGRO, FLO, DMC)
Industry: Tobacco (2 Tracked Issuers)Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) ranks #19 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #64 by equity capitalization ($1.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DMC leads on earnings valuation at 14.0x trailing P/E, while TPB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.0% ROIC and 57.1% gross margin. FLO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with TPB at 68/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPB
ACTIVE
Turning Point Brands Inc. | C+ | 68/100 | 23.7x | 57.1% | 17.0% | +2.53% | $1.38B | Benchmark Subject |
| AIIR Air Global PLC | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | — | -2.13% | $1.18B | /aiir-vs-tpb → |
| AGRO Adecoagro S.A. | D+ | 58/100 | — | — | — | -1.12% | $1.40B | /agro-vs-tpb → |
| FLO Flowers Foods Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 15.6x | — | 5.2% | +0.65% | $1.31B | /flo-vs-tpb → |
| DMC Del Monte Corporation | D+ | 58/100 | 14.0x | 9.2% | 5.5% | -4.24% | $1.31B | /dmc-vs-tpb → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001290677In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) reported GAAP revenue of $463.1M (+28.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $360.7M ) , GAAP net income of $58.2M, operating cash flow of $57.4M, and free cash flow of $43.8M (-29.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, TPB closed FY2025 with $763.8M in total assets against $293.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.03, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $463.1M | $58.2M | $57.4M | $43.8M | $763.8M | $293.6M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $360.7M | $39.8M | $67.1M | $62.4M | $493.4M | $248.6M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $38.5M | $66.9M | $66.9M | — | — |
3. TPB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TPB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Turning Point Brands Inc. (NYSE: TPB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $68.81 (+2.53% 1D, market cap $1.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, TPB ranks #19 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TPB compare to AIIR and AGRO in the Consumer Staples sector?
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Tobacco), TPB carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 23.7x, gross margin of 57.1%, and ROIC of 17.0%. By comparison, AIIR (Air Global PLC) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.18B) and AGRO (Adecoagro S.A.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DMC leads on earnings multiple (14.0x) while TPB leads on capital efficiency (17.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPB?
Per TPB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001290677), Turning Point Brands Inc. generated $463.1M in revenue (+28.4% YoY), $58.2M in net income, and $43.8M in free cash flow against $763.8M in total assets and $293.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TPB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TPB last traded at $68.81 (+2.53% on volume of 241,555 shares), positioning the stock +2.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($67.37) and -20.61% below its 200-day simple moving average ($86.67). Across its 52-week range of $54.17 to $146.90, TPB sits at the 15.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($62.27 to $75.35).
TPB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TPB stock moving today?
Why TPB Stock surged +2.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 57% profit margin (17% return on capital), mixed timing at 24x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.