Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / TPB / earnings

AIIR (58) AGRO (58) FLO (70) DMC (58) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.5% Move

$68.81 +2.53% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $68.99

Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.38B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $69.00 (+0.27%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 9.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TPB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TPB SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.03 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$57.38+9.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$62.65+2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$63.99+7.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$68.81+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TPB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, TPB faces multiple-compression risk if 23.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 54.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($67.37) or 200D SMA ($86.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($71.91) toward Bear Floor ($56.09).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TPB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TPB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.5% Swing Band

±$6.54 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TPB Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 68/100

Trailing EPS: $2.90 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (68/100)Model Risk Weight (32/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$463.1M	$58.2M	$43.8M	57.1%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$360.7M	$39.8M	$62.4M	55.9%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$38.5M	$66.9M	57.1%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating TPB & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on TPB
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TPB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.71%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $69.00H $69.43L $66.58C $68.81VOL 421.0K

RES: $85.78SUP: $47.61SMA50: $67.37SMA200: $86.67

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TPB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TPB Butterfly Map → + Track TPB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

17.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TPB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TPB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TPB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TPB)

Consumer Staples Rank #19 of 146 ⚔️ AIIR vs TPB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (TPB vs. AIIR, AGRO, FLO, DMC)

Industry: Tobacco (2 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) ranks #19 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #64 by equity capitalization ($1.38B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DMC leads on earnings valuation at 14.0x trailing P/E, while TPB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.0% ROIC and 57.1% gross margin. FLO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with TPB at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TPB ACTIVE Turning Point Brands Inc.	C+	68/100	23.7x	57.1%	17.0%	+2.53%	$1.38B	Benchmark Subject
AIIR Air Global PLC	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-2.13%	$1.18B	/aiir-vs-tpb →
AGRO Adecoagro S.A.	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-1.12%	$1.40B	/agro-vs-tpb →
FLO Flowers Foods Inc.	B-	70/100	15.6x	—	5.2%	+0.65%	$1.31B	/flo-vs-tpb →
DMC Del Monte Corporation	D+	58/100	14.0x	9.2%	5.5%	-4.24%	$1.31B	/dmc-vs-tpb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001290677

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Turning Point Brands Inc. (TPB) reported GAAP revenue of $463.1M (+28.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $360.7M ) , GAAP net income of $58.2M, operating cash flow of $57.4M, and free cash flow of $43.8M (-29.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, TPB closed FY2025 with $763.8M in total assets against $293.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.03, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$463.1M	$58.2M	$57.4M	$43.8M	$763.8M	$293.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$360.7M	$39.8M	$67.1M	$62.4M	$493.4M	$248.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$38.5M	$66.9M	$66.9M	—	—

3. TPB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TPB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Turning Point Brands Inc. (NYSE: TPB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $68.81 (+2.53% 1D, market cap $1.38B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, TPB ranks #19 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TPB compare to AIIR and AGRO in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Tobacco), TPB carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 23.7x, gross margin of 57.1%, and ROIC of 17.0%. By comparison, AIIR (Air Global PLC) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.18B) and AGRO (Adecoagro S.A.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DMC leads on earnings multiple (14.0x) while TPB leads on capital efficiency (17.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TPB?

Per TPB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001290677), Turning Point Brands Inc. generated $463.1M in revenue (+28.4% YoY), $58.2M in net income, and $43.8M in free cash flow against $763.8M in total assets and $293.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TPB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TPB last traded at $68.81 (+2.53% on volume of 241,555 shares), positioning the stock +2.14% above its 50-day simple moving average ($67.37) and -20.61% below its 200-day simple moving average ($86.67). Across its 52-week range of $54.17 to $146.90, TPB sits at the 15.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($62.27 to $75.35).