ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TMDE // TMD Energy Limited (Class A)

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0002009714 ↗
Energy • Oil Refining/Marketing
$0.58 ▲ +0.01 (+1.43%)
MKT CAP: $13.7M • VOL: 18.8K
TMDE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 68/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +0% vs NI -5.9% • ROIC-WACC +74.9% • Z 6.55
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
15 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 100% • VS 200D +78.6% • RSI 57.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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TMDE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -53.60%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $0.58H $0.70L $0.58C $0.58VOL 148.2K
RES: $0.69SUP: $0.50SMA50: $0.67SMA200: $0.95
$1.66$1.36$1.05$0.74$0.43RES $0.69SUP $0.50$0.582026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
TMDE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

TMD Energy Limited (Class A) (TMDE) exhibits 2.3% gross margins and 85.0% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil Refining/Marketing), balanced against a 7.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 2.3% gross profitability converts into 0.9% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 85.0% // GM: 2.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.8% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.8% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 6.55 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 6.55 // F-SCORE: 3/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 7.3x trailing P/E (6.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 7.3x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $0.58 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil Refining/Marketing require continuous execution to defend 0.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.3% // D/E: 0.03x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 6.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 7.3x
FORWARD P/E 6.8x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN 2.3%
OPERATING MARGIN 0.9%
NET MARGIN 0.3%
ROIC % 85.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.14
DEBT / EQUITY 0.03x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.2
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TMDEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $0.53
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>