ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SPSC // SPS Commerce Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001092699 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software
$85.78 ▲ +0.19 (+0.22%)
MKT CAP: $3.09B • VOL: 704.4K
SPSC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 74/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
74 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +10.9% vs NI +21.1% • ROIC-WACC +2.8% • Z 11.13
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 71% • VS 200D +7.5% • RSI 55.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] OUTLIER
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] OUTLIER
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
SIGNAL

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SPSC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +52.85%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $85.78H $86.14L $80.87C $85.78VOL 659.4K
RES: $101.0SUP: $72.71SMA50: $83.38SMA200: $68.08
$95.88$83.19$70.49$57.80$45.10RES $101.0SUP $72.71$85.782026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
SPSC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 55/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) exhibits 69.2% gross margins and 11.4% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 20.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 69.2% gross profitability converts into 15.7% operating margin and 11.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 11.4% // GM: 69.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +17.8% paired with 4.93% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +17.8% // FCF YLD: 4.93%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 11.13 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 11.13 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 33.1x trailing P/E (27.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 33.1x // EV/EBITDA: 20.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $85.78 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend 12.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.4% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 27.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 33.1x
FORWARD P/E 27.8x
EV / EBITDA 20.9x
FCF YIELD 4.93%
GROSS MARGIN 69.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 15.7%
NET MARGIN 12.4%
ROIC % 11.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +17.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.59
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SPSCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $78.49
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SPSC & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>