ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SHOO // Steven Madden Ltd.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000913241 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Shoe Manufacturing
$44.93 ▲ +2.25 (+5.27%)
MKT CAP: $3.29B • VOL: 1.20M
SHOO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 69/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
69 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF -30.6% vs NI -73.6% • ROIC-WACC -2.6% • Z 5
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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SHOO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.62%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-10-30O $44.93H $45.30L $43.34C $44.93VOL 1.22M
RES: $46.81SUP: $41.96SMA50: $43.98SMA200: $41.37
$50.68$46.62$42.57$38.51$34.45RES $46.81SUP $41.96$44.932026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
SHOO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 35/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Steven Madden Ltd. (SHOO) exhibits 41.6% gross margins and 6.5% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Shoe Manufacturing), balanced against a 29.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 41.6% gross profitability converts into 3.2% operating margin and 6.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.5% // GM: 41.6%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +11.0% paired with 3.64% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +11.0% // FCF YLD: 3.64%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 5.00 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 5.00 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 73.6x trailing P/E (68.4x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 73.6x // EV/EBITDA: 29.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $44.93 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Shoe Manufacturing require continuous execution to defend 1.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.8% // D/E: 0.27x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 68.4x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 73.6x
FORWARD P/E 68.4x
EV / EBITDA 29.1x
FCF YIELD 3.64%
GROSS MARGIN 41.6%
OPERATING MARGIN 3.2%
NET MARGIN 1.8%
ROIC % 6.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +11.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.61
DEBT / EQUITY 0.27x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.85%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 46.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SHOOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $41.11
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SHOO & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>