ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SAFE // Safehold Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001095651 ↗
Financials • Real Estate Investment Trusts
$11.34 ▲ +0.37 (+3.37%)
MKT CAP: $803.1M • VOL: 1.03M
SAFE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 66/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
66 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 52% • VS 200D +0.4% • RSI 59.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +6% • P/E 6.5x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
16 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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SAFE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.21%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $11.44H $11.48L $11.12C $11.34VOL 918.1K
SUP: $10.28SMA50: $12.97SMA200: $14.70
$17.93$15.95$13.96$11.98$9.99SUP $10.28$11.342026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
SAFE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 44/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Safehold Inc. (SAFE) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 3.3% return on invested capital within Financials (Real Estate Investment Trusts), balanced against a 7.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 26.2% operating margin and 3.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.3% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +5.4% paired with 5.95% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +5.4% // FCF YLD: 5.95%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 7.0x trailing P/E (6.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 7.0x // EV/EBITDA: 7.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $11.34 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Real Estate Investment Trusts require continuous execution to defend 29.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 29.7% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 6.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 7.0x
FORWARD P/E 6.5x
EV / EBITDA 7.7x
FCF YIELD 5.95%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 26.2%
NET MARGIN 29.7%
ROIC % 3.3%
REV GROWTH YOY +5.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.62
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 6.34%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 40.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SAFEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $10.38
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>