ROARABLE // PRO
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PTLO // Portillo's Inc. (Class A)

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001871509 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Restaurants
$4.96 ▲ +0.49 (+10.96%)
MKT CAP: $376.7M • VOL: 2.39M
PTLO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 46/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
46 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 75% • VS 200D +9.3% • RSI 84
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 10 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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PTLO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.64%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $4.96H $5.10L $4.84C $4.96VOL 1.79M
RES: $5.50SUP: $2.78SMA50: $4.20SMA200: $4.83
$6.84$5.88$4.92$3.95$2.99RES $5.50SUP $2.78$4.962026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PTLO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 44/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Portillo's Inc. (Class A) (PTLO) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 4.9% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Restaurants), balanced against a 5.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 6.0% operating margin and 4.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 4.9% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +3.0% paired with -4.92% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +3.0% // FCF YLD: -4.92%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.70 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.70 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 17.9x trailing P/E (16.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 17.9x // EV/EBITDA: 5.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $4.96 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Restaurants require continuous execution to defend 2.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.9% // D/E: 0.51x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 16.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 17.9x
FORWARD P/E 16.6x
EV / EBITDA 5.1x
FCF YIELD -4.92%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 6.0%
NET MARGIN 2.9%
ROIC % 4.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +3.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.28
DEBT / EQUITY 0.51x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 64.3
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PTLOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $4.54
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>