ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

PFS // Provident Financial Services Inc

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001178970 ↗
Financials • Savings Institutions
$22.94 ▼ -0.23 (-0.99%)
MKT CAP: $3.02B • VOL: 956.0K
PFS // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // C (RQD 62) -> C+ (RQD 68)
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 +6D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 70% • VS 200D +2.3% • RSI 58.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +14.3% • P/E 9.7x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.02 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.40
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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PFS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.10%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $23.12H $23.17L $22.94C $22.94VOL 770.9K
RES: $23.43SUP: $21.22SMA50: $22.86SMA200: $22.65
$25.86$24.34$22.82$21.30$19.78RES $23.43SUP $21.22$22.942026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PFS // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 10.3% return on invested capital within Financials (Savings Institutions), balanced against a 10.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 10.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 10.3% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +7.1% paired with 14.25% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +7.1% // FCF YLD: 14.25%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 10.4x trailing P/E (9.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 10.4x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $22.94 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Savings Institutions require continuous execution to defend 68.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 68.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 9.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 10.4x
FORWARD P/E 9.7x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 14.25%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN 68.0%
ROIC % 10.3%
REV GROWTH YOY +7.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.23
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 4.17%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 58.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PFSPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $20.99
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>