ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ORN // Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001402829 ↗
Industrials • Military/Government/Technical
$9.11 ▲ +0.81 (+9.76%)
MKT CAP: $370.4M • VOL: 1.14M
ORN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 50/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
50 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 73% • VS 200D +5.3% • RSI 81
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did ORN's Insider & Capital Conviction & Forensic Fundamentals sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever ORN is Upgraded or Downgraded.

ORN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.11%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $8.69H $9.11L $8.10C $9.11VOL 691.9K
RES: $9.78SUP: $8.05SMA50: $8.98SMA200: $11.83
$18.05$15.35$12.66$9.96$7.26RES $9.78SUP $8.05$9.112026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
ORN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) exhibits 12.4% gross margins and 7.1% return on invested capital within Industrials (Military/Government/Technical), balanced against a 7.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 12.4% gross profitability converts into 1.7% operating margin and 7.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 7.1% // GM: 12.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +7.0% paired with -2.91% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +7.0% // FCF YLD: -2.91%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.05 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.05 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 148.9x trailing P/E (138.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 148.9x // EV/EBITDA: 7.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $9.11 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Military/Government/Technical require continuous execution to defend 0.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.3% // D/E: 0.04x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 138.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 148.9x
FORWARD P/E 138.5x
EV / EBITDA 7.9x
FCF YIELD -2.91%
GROSS MARGIN 12.4%
OPERATING MARGIN 1.7%
NET MARGIN 0.3%
ROIC % 7.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +7.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.06
DEBT / EQUITY 0.04x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.4
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ORNPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $8.34
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for ORN & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>