ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

OEC // Orion S.A.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001609804 ↗
Materials • Major Chemicals
$5.54 ▲ +0.07 (+1.28%)
MKT CAP: $313.1M • VOL: 403.9K
OEC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 52/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
52 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +72.2% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -4.7% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 76% • VS 200D +5.9% • RSI 59.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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OEC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.33%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $5.53H $5.60L $5.43C $5.54VOL 280.6K
RES: $7.59SUP: $4.94SMA50: $5.79SMA200: $6.39
$8.89$7.85$6.82$5.78$4.75RES $7.59SUP $4.94$5.542026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
OEC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 38/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Orion S.A. (OEC) exhibits 19.9% gross margins and 2.2% return on invested capital within Materials (Major Chemicals), balanced against a 33.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 19.9% gross profitability converts into 1.5% operating margin and 2.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 2.2% // GM: 19.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -3.8% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -3.8% // FCF YLD: 2.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 33.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $5.54 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Chemicals require continuous execution to defend -3.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -3.9% // D/E: 1.75x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 33.7x
FCF YIELD —
GROSS MARGIN 19.9%
OPERATING MARGIN 1.5%
NET MARGIN -3.9%
ROIC % 2.2%
REV GROWTH YOY -3.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 1.75x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.50%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // OECPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $5.07
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>