ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NXDR // Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A)

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001846069 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Programming Data Processing
$2.30 ▼ -0.07 (-2.95%)
MKT CAP: $889.8M • VOL: 1.54M
NXDR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 48/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
48 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +128.6% vs NI +44.7% • ROIC-WACC -24% • Z 8.04
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
8 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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NXDR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.50%
2026-10-30O $2.27H $2.30L $2.19C $2.30VOL 1.65M
$2.68$2.55$2.42$2.28$2.15$2.302026-10-162026-10-202026-10-232026-10-272026-10-30
NXDR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 30/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Nextdoor Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NXDR) exhibits 84.1% gross margins and -15.4% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Programming Data Processing), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 84.1% gross profitability converts into -27.9% operating margin and -15.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -15.4% // GM: 84.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.2% paired with 0.66% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.2% // FCF YLD: 0.66%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 8.04 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 8.04 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $2.30 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Programming Data Processing require continuous execution to defend -21.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -21.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 0.66%
GROSS MARGIN 84.1%
OPERATING MARGIN -27.9%
NET MARGIN -21.0%
ROIC % -15.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 37.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NXDRPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $2.10
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>