ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NVAX // Novavax Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001000694 ↗
Health Care • Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)
$10.47 ▲ +0.15 (+1.45%)
MKT CAP: $1.73B • VOL: 2.80M
NVAX // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
56 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 74% • VS 200D +5.7% • RSI 59.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD -14.2% • P/E 3.5x • F-SCORE 5/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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NVAX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +32.03%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $10.27H $10.65L $9.92C $10.47VOL 4.06M
RES: $14.26SUP: $9.03SMA50: $10.46SMA200: $9.29
$13.83$12.02$10.21$8.40$6.59RES $14.26SUP $9.03$10.472026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
NVAX // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Novavax Inc. (NVAX) exhibits 93.5% gross margins and 85.0% return on invested capital within Health Care (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), balanced against a 3.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 93.5% gross profitability converts into 40.3% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 85.0% // GM: 93.5%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +64.7% paired with -14.17% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +64.7% // FCF YLD: -14.17%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.20 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.20 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 3.9x trailing P/E (3.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 3.9x // EV/EBITDA: 3.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $10.47 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) require continuous execution to defend 39.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 39.2% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 3.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 3.9x
FORWARD P/E 3.5x
EV / EBITDA 3.3x
FCF YIELD -14.17%
GROSS MARGIN 93.5%
OPERATING MARGIN 40.3%
NET MARGIN 39.2%
ROIC % 85.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +64.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.67
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NVAXPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $9.58
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>