ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NPB // Northpointe Bancshares Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001336706 ↗
Financials • Major Banks
$16.18 ▼ -0.01 (-0.06%)
MKT CAP: $559.5M • VOL: 345.4K
NPB // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // C (RQD 63) -> C- (RQD 60)
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
60 / 100 -3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +121.4% vs NI +51.2% • ROIC-WACC +5.7% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
9 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 40% • VS 200D -6.7% • RSI 55.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +7.4% • P/E 6.2x • F-SCORE 4/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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NPB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.77%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $16.19H $16.19L $16.18C $16.18VOL 345.4K
RES: $16.68SUP: $13.57SMA50: $16.08SMA200: $17.34
$20.12$18.41$16.70$14.98$13.27RES $16.68SUP $13.57$16.182026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
NPB // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 53/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Northpointe Bancshares Inc. (NPB) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 14.7% return on invested capital within Financials (Major Banks), balanced against a 6.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 14.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 14.7% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with 7.42% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: 7.42%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 6.7x trailing P/E (6.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 6.7x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $16.18 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Banks require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 6.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 6.7x
FORWARD P/E 6.2x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 7.42%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % 14.7%
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.41
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.58%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NPBPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $14.81
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>