ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NODK // NI Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001681206 ↗
Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers
$15.12 ▲ +0.23 (+1.55%)
MKT CAP: $308.5M • VOL: 19.8K
NODK // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // D- (RQD 35) -> E (RQD 33)
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
33 / 100 -2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
3 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -120% vs NI -71.8% • ROIC-WACC -13.3% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 64% • VS 200D +5.4% • RSI 57.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
8 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.03 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.17
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did NODK's Insider & Capital Conviction & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever NODK is Upgraded or Downgraded.

NODK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.39%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $14.89H $15.12L $14.89C $15.12VOL 19.8K
RES: $15.43SUP: $14.28SMA50: $14.98SMA200: $14.34
$16.98$15.84$14.70$13.56$12.42RES $15.43SUP $14.28$15.122026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
NODK // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 29/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

NI Holdings Inc. (NODK) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -4.3% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and -4.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -4.3% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -12.3% paired with -5.02% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -12.3% // FCF YLD: -5.02%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 1/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $15.12 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend -3.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -3.7% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -5.02%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN -3.7%
ROIC % -4.3%
REV GROWTH YOY -12.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.18%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 57.7
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NODKPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $13.84
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for NODK & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>