ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NL // NLI Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000072162 ↗
Materials • Major Chemicals
$6.99 ▼ -0.05 (-0.71%)
MKT CAP: $341.8M • VOL: 13.3K
NL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 44/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
44 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF -120% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -5.2% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
9 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 63% • VS 200D +2.9% • RSI 51.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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NL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.50%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $6.99H $7.20L $6.82C $6.99VOL 18.2K
RES: $7.79SUP: $6.64SMA50: $6.83SMA200: $6.28
$8.81$7.94$7.06$6.19$5.32RES $7.79SUP $6.64$6.992026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
NL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 45/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) exhibits 30.4% gross margins and 3.4% return on invested capital within Materials (Major Chemicals), balanced against a 16.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 30.4% gross profitability converts into 6.7% operating margin and 3.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.4% // GM: 30.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.5% paired with -11.75% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.5% // FCF YLD: -11.75%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 16.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $6.99 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Chemicals require continuous execution to defend -23.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -23.9% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 16.7x
FCF YIELD -11.75%
GROSS MARGIN 30.4%
OPERATING MARGIN 6.7%
NET MARGIN -23.9%
ROIC % 3.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 5.15%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 60.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $6.40
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for NL & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>