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NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$6.99 -0.71% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.97

NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $341.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.97 (-0.32%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NL SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 55% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$6.94-4.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$6.63+1.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$6.72+4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$6.99-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NL currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.83) and Max Pain ($7.34) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.03.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

60.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE55% OF RANGE

L: $5$6.99H: $9

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 13 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on NL

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (40)

3.4% ROIC with 30.4% gross margin and -11.75% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (55)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (42)

13/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NL

✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NL)

✓Walkthrough of NL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.50%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $6.99H $7.20L $6.82C $6.99VOL 18.2K

RES: $7.79SUP: $6.64SMA50: $6.83SMA200: $6.28

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NL Butterfly Map → + Track NL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

14.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NL)

Materials Rank #200 of 270 ⚔️ ASPI vs NL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (NL vs. ASPI, SLI, ADUR, OEC)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) ranks #200 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #192 by equity capitalization ($341.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 30.4% gross margin. ADUR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with NL at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NL ACTIVE NLI Holdings Inc.	D	44/100	—	30.4%	3.4%	-0.71%	$341.8M	Benchmark Subject
ASPI ASP Isotopes Inc.	D-	38/100	—	14.3%	-35.0%	+4.93%	$326.5M	/aspi-vs-nl →
SLI Standard Lithium Ltd.	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-3.33%	$358.0M	/sli-vs-nl →
ADUR Aduro Clean Technologies Inc.	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+3.22%	$367.4M	/adur-vs-nl →
OEC Orion S.A.	D+	52/100	—	19.9%	2.2%	+1.28%	$313.1M	/oec-vs-nl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000072162

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) reported GAAP revenue of $158.3M (+8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $145.9M , and -1.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$37.8M, operating cash flow of -$36.4M, and free cash flow of -$40.1M (-266.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NL closed FY2025 with $464.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$158.3M	-$37.8M	-$36.4M	-$40.1M	$464.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$145.9M	$67.2M	$25.6M	$24.1M	$578.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$161.3M	-$2.3M	$37.0M	$37.0M	—	—

3. NL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, NLI Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $6.99 (-0.71% 1D, market cap $341.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, NL ranks #200 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NL compare to ASPI and SLI in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), NL carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.4%, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, ASPI (ASP Isotopes Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $326.5M) and SLI (Standard Lithium Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $358.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NL?

Per NL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000072162), NLI Holdings Inc. generated $158.3M in revenue (+8.5% YoY), -$37.8M in net income, and -$40.1M in free cash flow against $464.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NL last traded at $6.99 (-0.71% on volume of 13,276 shares), positioning the stock +2.34% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.83) and +11.31% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.28). Across its 52-week range of $5.04 to $8.60, NL sits at the 54.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($6.50 to $7.48).

NL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell NL stock right now?

NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 44/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (3% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is NL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

NL's 12-month base price target is $6.55 (range $5.11 to $9.03), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: NL RQD Cockpit NL 12M Forecast NL Earnings & Move NL Dividends & DRIP NL Insiders & 13F NL Whale Options NL Profit Sankey NL News & Why