Stock Ratings / Materials / NL / financials

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NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$6.99 -0.71% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.97

NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $341.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, NLI Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $6.99 (-0.71% 1D, market cap $341.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 4/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, NL ranks #200 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NL compare to ASPI and SLI in the Materials sector?

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Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), NL carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.4%, and ROIC of 3.4%. By comparison, ASPI (ASP Isotopes Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $326.5M) and SLI (Standard Lithium Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $358.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NL leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NL?

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Per NL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000072162), NLI Holdings Inc. generated $158.3M in revenue (+8.5% YoY), -$37.8M in net income, and -$40.1M in free cash flow against $464.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.97 (-0.32%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NL SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 55% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$6.94-4.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$6.63+1.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$6.72+4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$6.99-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NL currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.83) and Max Pain ($7.34) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.03.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How NL Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $161.3M

FY24

Rev $145.9M

FY25

Rev $158.3M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$158.3M	30.4%	6.7%	-$37.8M	-$40.1M	3.4%
FY 2024	$145.9M	28.3%	26%	$67.2M	$24.1M	12.8%
FY 2023	$161.3M	30.4%	8.8%	-$2.3M	$37.0M	3.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NL)

✓Walkthrough of NL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.50%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $6.99H $7.20L $6.82C $6.99VOL 18.2K

RES: $7.79SUP: $6.64SMA50: $6.83SMA200: $6.28

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NL Butterfly Map → + Track NL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

14.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NL)

Materials Rank #200 of 270 ⚔️ ASPI vs NL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (NL vs. ASPI, SLI, ADUR, OEC)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) ranks #200 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #192 by equity capitalization ($341.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and 30.4% gross margin. ADUR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with NL at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NL ACTIVE NLI Holdings Inc.	D	44/100	—	30.4%	3.4%	-0.71%	$341.8M	Benchmark Subject
ASPI ASP Isotopes Inc.	D-	38/100	—	14.3%	-35.0%	+4.93%	$326.5M	/aspi-vs-nl →
SLI Standard Lithium Ltd.	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-3.33%	$358.0M	/sli-vs-nl →
ADUR Aduro Clean Technologies Inc.	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+3.22%	$367.4M	/adur-vs-nl →
OEC Orion S.A.	D+	52/100	—	19.9%	2.2%	+1.28%	$313.1M	/oec-vs-nl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000072162

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NLI Holdings Inc. (NL) reported GAAP revenue of $158.3M (+8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $145.9M , and -1.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$37.8M, operating cash flow of -$36.4M, and free cash flow of -$40.1M (-266.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, NL closed FY2025 with $464.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$158.3M	-$37.8M	-$36.4M	-$40.1M	$464.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$145.9M	$67.2M	$25.6M	$24.1M	$578.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$161.3M	-$2.3M	$37.0M	$37.0M	—	—

3. NL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NL compare to ASPI and SLI in the Materials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NL?

Where is NL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NL last traded at $6.99 (-0.71% on volume of 13,276 shares), positioning the stock +2.34% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.83) and +11.31% above its 200-day simple moving average ($6.28). Across its 52-week range of $5.04 to $8.60, NL sits at the 54.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($6.50 to $7.48).