ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NBHC // National Bank Holdings Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001475841 ↗
Financials • Major Banks
$37.56 ▲ +0.08 (+0.21%)
MKT CAP: $1.67B • VOL: 408.2K
NBHC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 72/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
72 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 67% • VS 200D +3.8% • RSI 54.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +9.7% • P/E 14.2x • F-SCORE 4/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
18 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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NBHC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.04%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $37.83H $37.88L $37.25C $37.56VOL 538.1K
RES: $39.07SUP: $35.71SMA50: $39.71SMA200: $41.34
$48.01$44.98$41.94$38.90$35.87RES $39.07SUP $35.71$37.562026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
NBHC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 45/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 7.9% return on invested capital within Financials (Major Banks), balanced against a 15.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 7.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 7.9% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +2.1% paired with 9.71% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +2.1% // FCF YLD: 9.71%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 15.3x trailing P/E (14.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 15.3x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $37.56 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Banks require continuous execution to defend 68.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 68.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 14.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 15.3x
FORWARD P/E 14.2x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 9.71%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN 68.0%
ROIC % 7.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +2.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.46
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.75%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 37.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NBHCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $34.37
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>