ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MWA // MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001350593 ↗
Industrials • Metal Fabrications
$22.78 ▲ +0.65 (+2.94%)
MKT CAP: $3.56B • VOL: 1.82M
MWA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 76/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
76 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 79% • VS 200D +6.7% • RSI 64.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +6.2% • P/E 17.3x • F-SCORE 9/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
17 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did MWA's Forensic Fundamentals & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever MWA is Upgraded or Downgraded.

MWA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.32%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $22.86H $23.06L $22.60C $22.78VOL 1.14M
RES: $29.64SUP: $19.62SMA50: $22.65SMA200: $25.87
$29.48$27.16$24.83$22.50$20.18RES $29.64SUP $19.62$22.782026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
MWA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 53/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) exhibits 36.1% gross margins and 14.0% return on invested capital within Industrials (Metal Fabrications), balanced against a 15.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 36.1% gross profitability converts into 18.2% operating margin and 14.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 14.0% // GM: 36.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.7% paired with 6.17% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.7% // FCF YLD: 6.17%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.22 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.22 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 18.6x trailing P/E (17.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 18.6x // EV/EBITDA: 15.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $22.78 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Metal Fabrications require continuous execution to defend 13.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 13.4% // D/E: 0.44x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 17.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 18.6x
FORWARD P/E 17.3x
EV / EBITDA 15.4x
FCF YIELD 6.17%
GROSS MARGIN 36.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 18.2%
NET MARGIN 13.4%
ROIC % 14.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.23
DEBT / EQUITY 0.44x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.18%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 59.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MWAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $20.84
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MWA & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>