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MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$22.78 +2.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.86

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.56B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MWA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (NYSE: MWA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $22.78 (+2.94% 1D, market cap $3.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MWA ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MWA compare to CXT and CSTM in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), MWA carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 36.1%, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, CXT (Crane NXT Co.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 23.9x, ROIC 19.1%, cap $3.47B) and CSTM (Constellium SE (France)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 28.7%, cap $3.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CSTM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while XE leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MWA?

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Per MWA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001350593), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS generated $1.43B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $191.7M in net income, and $219.3M in free cash flow against $1.85B in total assets and $450.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.86 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 15.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MWA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MWA SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.22 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (59.7) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$21.87-0.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$21.75+3.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$22.46+1.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C$22.78+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MWA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, MWA faces multiple-compression risk if 18.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 33.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.61) or 200D SMA ($25.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.19) toward Bear Floor ($18.09).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MWA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MWA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

59.730 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

4.22>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

9 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE19% OF RANGE

L: $21$22.78H: $31

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (36% profit margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on MWA

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (65)

14.0% ROIC with 36.1% gross margin and 6.17% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.22 and Piotroski 9/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (57)

26/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MWA

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MWA Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MWA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.34%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $22.13H $22.78L $22.13C $22.78VOL 1.82M

RES: $29.66SUP: $19.56SMA50: $22.61SMA200: $25.85

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MWA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MWA Butterfly Map → + Track MWA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MWA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MWA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MWA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MWA)

Industrials Rank #113 of 485 ⚔️ CXT vs MWA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MWA vs. CXT, CSTM, XE, SMR)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) ranks #113 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #171 by equity capitalization ($3.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CSTM leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while XE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.5% ROIC and — gross margin. CXT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MWA at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MWA ACTIVE MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS	C	62/100	18.6x	36.1%	14.0%	+2.94%	$3.56B	Benchmark Subject
CXT Crane NXT Co.	B	73/100	23.9x	42.5%	19.1%	+3.31%	$3.47B	/cxt-vs-mwa →
CSTM Constellium SE (France)	D+	56/100	11.8x	—	28.7%	-1.68%	$3.23B	/cstm-vs-mwa →
XE X-Energy Inc.	D+	56/100	32.8x	—	38.5%	+1.39%	$4.75B	/xe-vs-mwa →
SMR NuScale Power Corporation	E	26/100	—	36.3%	-35.0%	+4.41%	$2.54B	/smr-vs-mwa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001350593

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.43B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.31B , and +12.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $191.7M, operating cash flow of $219.3M, and free cash flow of $219.3M (-8.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MWA closed FY2025 with $1.85B in total assets against $450.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.22, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$1.43B	$191.7M	$219.3M	$219.3M	$1.85B	$450.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$1.31B	$115.9M	$238.8M	$238.8M	$1.62B	$448.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.28B	$85.5M	$109.0M	$109.0M	—	—

3. MWA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MWA compare to CXT and CSTM in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MWA?

Where is MWA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MWA last traded at $22.78 (+2.94% on volume of 1,821,012 shares), positioning the stock +0.75% above its 50-day simple moving average ($22.61) and -11.88% below its 200-day simple moving average ($25.85). Across its 52-week range of $20.90 to $31.00, MWA sits at the 18.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($21.64 to $23.92).

MWA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MWA stock right now?

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 36% profit margin (14% return on capital), mixed timing at 19x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is MWA's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MWA's 12-month base price target is $23.19 (range $18.09 to $32.55), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: MWA RQD Cockpit MWA 12M Forecast MWA Earnings & Move MWA Dividends & DRIP MWA Insiders & 13F MWA Whale Options MWA Profit Sankey MWA News & Why