Stock Ratings / Industrials / MWA / options

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MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$22.78 +2.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.96

MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (36% profit margin, 14% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $3.56B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.96 (+0.77%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 15.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MWA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MWA SCORES 76/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+17/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 19% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 59.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 18.2% operating margin leave 7 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$21.67+0.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$21.77+2.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$22.26+2.3% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$22.78+7.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (68) → B+ (76)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MWA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, MWA faces multiple-compression risk if 18.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 33.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.65) or 200D SMA ($25.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($24.63) toward Bear Floor ($18.68).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MWA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MWA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 76%NO 24%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MWA)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MWA.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MWA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MWA
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MWA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.32%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $22.86H $23.06L $22.60C $22.78VOL 1.14M

RES: $29.64SUP: $19.62SMA50: $22.65SMA200: $25.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MWA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MWA Butterfly Map → + Track MWA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MWA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MWA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MWA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MWA)

Industrials Rank #22 of 485 ⚔️ CXT vs MWA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MWA vs. CXT, CSTM, XE, SMR)

Industry: Metal Fabrications (47 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) ranks #22 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #171 by equity capitalization ($3.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CSTM leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while XE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MWA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 76/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MWA ACTIVE MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS	B+	76/100	18.6x	36.1%	14.0%	+2.94%	$3.56B	Benchmark Subject
CXT Crane NXT Co.	B	74/100	23.9x	42.5%	19.1%	+3.31%	$3.47B	/cxt-vs-mwa →
CSTM Constellium SE (France)	B-	70/100	11.8x	—	28.7%	-1.68%	$3.23B	/cstm-vs-mwa →
XE X-Energy Inc.	D+	56/100	32.8x	—	38.5%	+1.39%	$4.75B	/xe-vs-mwa →
SMR NuScale Power Corporation	E	26/100	—	36.3%	-35.0%	+4.41%	$2.54B	/smr-vs-mwa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001350593

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (MWA) reported GAAP revenue of $1.43B (+8.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.31B , and +12.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $191.7M, operating cash flow of $219.3M, and free cash flow of $219.3M (-8.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MWA closed FY2025 with $1.85B in total assets against $450.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.22, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$1.43B	$191.7M	$219.3M	$219.3M	$1.85B	$450.9M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$1.31B	$115.9M	$238.8M	$238.8M	$1.62B	$448.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$1.28B	$85.5M	$109.0M	$109.0M	—	—

3. MWA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MWA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS (NYSE: MWA) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $22.78 (+2.94% 1D, market cap $3.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MWA ranks #22 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MWA compare to CXT and CSTM in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Metal Fabrications), MWA carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.6x, gross margin of 36.1%, and ROIC of 14.0%. By comparison, CXT (Crane NXT Co.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 23.9x, ROIC 19.1%, cap $3.47B) and CSTM (Constellium SE (France)) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 28.7%, cap $3.23B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CSTM leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while XE leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MWA?

Per MWA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001350593), MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS generated $1.43B in revenue (+8.7% YoY), $191.7M in net income, and $219.3M in free cash flow against $1.85B in total assets and $450.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MWA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MWA last traded at $22.78 (+2.94% on volume of 1,821,012 shares), positioning the stock +0.57% above its 50-day simple moving average ($22.65) and -11.94% below its 200-day simple moving average ($25.87). Across its 52-week range of $20.90 to $31.00, MWA sits at the 18.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($21.64 to $23.92).