ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MGPI // MGP Ingredients Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000835011 ↗
Consumer Staples • Beverages (Production/Distribution)
$17.21 ▲ +0.48 (+2.87%)
MKT CAP: $368.7M • VOL: 392.8K
MGPI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 50/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
50 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF +144.5% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -19.3% • Z 1.43
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 77% • VS 200D +6.2% • RSI 63.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did MGPI's Forensic 10-K Risk & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever MGPI is Upgraded or Downgraded.

MGPI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.69%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $17.34H $17.76L $16.85C $17.21VOL 349.4K
RES: $20.33SUP: $11.58SMA50: $15.00SMA200: $18.27
$25.21$21.74$18.28$14.81$11.34RES $20.33SUP $11.58$17.212026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
MGPI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) exhibits 37.2% gross margins and -10.7% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 37.2% gross profitability converts into -17.6% operating margin and -10.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -10.7% // GM: 37.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -23.8% paired with 20.63% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -23.8% // FCF YLD: 20.63%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.43 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.43 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $17.21 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Beverages (Production/Distribution) require continuous execution to defend -20.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -20.1% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 20.63%
GROSS MARGIN 37.2%
OPERATING MARGIN -17.6%
NET MARGIN -20.1%
ROIC % -10.7%
REV GROWTH YOY -23.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.80%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 68.3
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MGPIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $15.75
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>