ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MGEE // MGE Energy Inc

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001161728 ↗
Energy • Electric Utilities: Central
$73.77 ▲ +0.32 (+0.44%)
MKT CAP: $2.79B • VOL: 126.6K
MGEE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 45/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
45 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
8 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 42% • VS 200D -1.7% • RSI 49.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
9 / 20
WARNING
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
13 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 7 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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MGEE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.04%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $73.92H $74.98L $73.56C $73.77VOL 234.6K
RES: $77.76SUP: $66.71SMA50: $73.75SMA200: $77.59
$86.51$81.50$76.48$71.47$66.45RES $77.76SUP $66.71$73.772026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
MGEE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 47/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 6.4% return on invested capital within Energy (Electric Utilities: Central), balanced against a 7.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 6.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.4% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with -2.87% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: -2.87%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 20.5x trailing P/E (19.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 20.5x // EV/EBITDA: 7.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $73.77 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Electric Utilities: Central require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.61x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 19.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 20.5x
FORWARD P/E 19.1x
EV / EBITDA 7.7x
FCF YIELD -2.87%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % 6.4%
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM $3.60
DEBT / EQUITY 0.61x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.42%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.8
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MGEEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $67.50
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for MGEE & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>