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MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$73.77 +0.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $73.69

MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.79B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $73.69 (-0.11%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MGEE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MGEE SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (20% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 33% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 55.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 4.3% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$70.22+2.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$72.27+1.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$73.48+0.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$73.77-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (37) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MGEE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MGEE currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($73.75) and Max Pain ($77.46) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $89.56.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MGEE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MGEE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

55.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE33% OF RANGE

L: $68$73.77H: $85

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on MGEE

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (35)

6.4% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -2.87% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (42)

16/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MGEE

✓Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MGEE)

✓Walkthrough of MGEE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MGEE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.04%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $73.92H $74.98L $73.56C $73.77VOL 234.6K

RES: $77.76SUP: $66.71SMA50: $73.75SMA200: $77.59

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MGEE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MGEE Butterfly Map → + Track MGEE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

14.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MGEE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MGEE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MGEE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MGEE)

Energy Rank #167 of 211 ⚔️ FRVO vs MGEE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (MGEE vs. FRVO, RNW, KEN, OTTR)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) ranks #167 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #110 by equity capitalization ($2.79B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OTTR leads on earnings valuation at 13.8x trailing P/E, while FRVO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.5% ROIC and — gross margin. OTTR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with MGEE at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MGEE ACTIVE MGE Energy Inc	D	45/100	20.5x	—	6.4%	+0.44%	$2.79B	Benchmark Subject
FRVO Fervo Energy Company	C-	60/100	32.8x	—	38.5%	+7.92%	$2.65B	/frvo-vs-mgee →
RNW ReNew Energy Global plc (Class A)	D+	52/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$2.50B	/rnw-vs-mgee →
KEN Kenon Holdings Ltd.	D+	58/100	—	—	—	+3.83%	$3.54B	/ken-vs-mgee →
OTTR Otter Tail Corporation	C	64/100	13.8x	—	18.5%	+0.87%	$3.80B	/ottr-vs-mgee →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001161728

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $135.9M, operating cash flow of $263.2M, and free cash flow of -$80.0M (-295.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MGEE closed FY2025 with $3.16B in total assets against $792.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$135.9M	$263.2M	-$80.0M	$3.16B	$792.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$120.6M	$277.8M	$40.9M	$2.83B	$763.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$117.7M	$237.6M	$237.6M	—	—

3. MGEE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MGEE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MGE Energy Inc (NASDAQ: MGEE) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $73.77 (+0.44% 1D, market cap $2.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MGEE ranks #167 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MGEE compare to FRVO and RNW in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Electric Utilities: Central), MGEE carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, FRVO (Fervo Energy Company) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 38.5%, cap $2.65B) and RNW (ReNew Energy Global plc (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.50B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OTTR leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while FRVO leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGEE?

Per MGEE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001161728), MGE Energy Inc generated $0 in revenue, $135.9M in net income, and -$80.0M in free cash flow against $3.16B in total assets and $792.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MGEE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MGEE last traded at $73.77 (+0.44% on volume of 126,570 shares), positioning the stock +0.03% above its 50-day simple moving average ($73.75) and -4.92% below its 200-day simple moving average ($77.59). Across its 52-week range of $68.01 to $85.30, MGEE sits at the 33.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($70.82 to $76.72).

MGEE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MGEE stock right now?

MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 45/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 21x P/E (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is MGEE's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MGEE's 12-month base price target is $69.45 (range $54.17 to $89.56), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: MGEE RQD Cockpit MGEE 12M Forecast MGEE Earnings & Move MGEE Dividends & DRIP MGEE Insiders & 13F MGEE Whale Options MGEE Profit Sankey MGEE News & Why