Stock Ratings / Energy / MGEE / financials

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MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$73.77 +0.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $73.69

MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.79B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MGEE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MGEE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, MGE Energy Inc (NASDAQ: MGEE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $73.77 (+0.44% 1D, market cap $2.79B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MGEE ranks #166 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MGEE compare to FRVO and RNW in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Electric Utilities: Central), MGEE carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 20.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, FRVO (Fervo Energy Company) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 38.5%, cap $2.65B) and RNW (ReNew Energy Global plc (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.50B). Among the 5-stock peer group, OTTR leads on earnings multiple (13.8x) while FRVO leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGEE?

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Per MGEE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001161728), MGE Energy Inc generated $0 in revenue, $135.9M in net income, and -$80.0M in free cash flow against $3.16B in total assets and $792.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $73.69 (-0.11%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MGEE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MGEE SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (56) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$70.66+0.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$71.31+3.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$73.54+0.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$73.77-6.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (35) → D- (43)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MGEE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MGEE currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($73.66) and Max Pain ($77.46) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $89.56.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MGEE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MGEE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MGEE Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	4.3%	$135.9M	-$80.0M	6.4%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	3.7%	$120.6M	$40.9M	5.9%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	3.7%	$117.7M	$237.6M	6.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MGEE)

✓Walkthrough of MGEE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MGEE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.91%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $73.45H $73.77L $73.45C $73.77VOL 126.6K

RES: $77.67SUP: $65.36SMA50: $73.66SMA200: $77.56

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MGEE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MGEE Butterfly Map → + Track MGEE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

14.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MGEE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MGEE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MGEE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MGEE)

Energy Rank #166 of 211 ⚔️ FRVO vs MGEE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (MGEE vs. FRVO, RNW, KEN, OTTR)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) ranks #166 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #110 by equity capitalization ($2.79B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OTTR leads on earnings valuation at 13.8x trailing P/E, while FRVO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.5% ROIC and — gross margin. OTTR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with MGEE at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MGEE ACTIVE MGE Energy Inc	D-	43/100	20.5x	—	6.4%	+0.44%	$2.79B	Benchmark Subject
FRVO Fervo Energy Company	C-	60/100	32.8x	—	38.5%	+7.92%	$2.65B	/frvo-vs-mgee →
RNW ReNew Energy Global plc (Class A)	D+	57/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$2.50B	/rnw-vs-mgee →
KEN Kenon Holdings Ltd.	D	51/100	—	—	—	+3.83%	$3.54B	/ken-vs-mgee →
OTTR Otter Tail Corporation	B-	71/100	13.8x	—	18.5%	+0.87%	$3.80B	/ottr-vs-mgee →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001161728

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MGE Energy Inc (MGEE) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $135.9M, operating cash flow of $263.2M, and free cash flow of -$80.0M (-295.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MGEE closed FY2025 with $3.16B in total assets against $792.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$135.9M	$263.2M	-$80.0M	$3.16B	$792.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$120.6M	$277.8M	$40.9M	$2.83B	$763.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$117.7M	$237.6M	$237.6M	—	—

3. MGEE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MGEE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MGEE compare to FRVO and RNW in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGEE?

Where is MGEE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MGEE last traded at $73.77 (+0.44% on volume of 126,570 shares), positioning the stock +0.15% above its 50-day simple moving average ($73.66) and -4.89% below its 200-day simple moving average ($77.56). Across its 52-week range of $68.01 to $85.30, MGEE sits at the 33.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($70.97 to $76.57).

MGEE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is MGE Energy Inc (MGEE)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), MGEE converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 4.3% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: MGEE RQD Cockpit MGEE 12M Forecast MGEE Earnings & Move MGEE Dividends & DRIP MGEE Insiders & 13F MGEE Whale Options MGEE Profit Sankey MGEE News & Why