ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MATV // Mativ Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001000623 ↗
Materials • Paper
$11.25 ▼ -0.11 (-0.97%)
MKT CAP: $620.9M • VOL: 473.4K
MATV // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 45/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
45 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF +135.7% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -27.9% • Z 0.66
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
8 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 54% • VS 200D +0.9% • RSI 48.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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MATV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +21.23%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $11.20H $11.46L $11.12C $11.25VOL 592.4K
RES: $12.23SUP: $10.97SMA50: $11.94SMA200: $10.28
$14.00$12.12$10.25$8.37$6.49RES $12.23SUP $10.97$11.252026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
MATV // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Mativ Holdings Inc. (MATV) exhibits 18.3% gross margins and -21.2% return on invested capital within Materials (Paper), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 18.3% gross profitability converts into -19.3% operating margin and -21.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -21.2% // GM: 18.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +0.3% paired with 15.11% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +0.3% // FCF YLD: 15.11%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.66 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.66 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $11.25 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Paper require continuous execution to defend -17.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -17.0% // D/E: 2.04x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 15.11%
GROSS MARGIN 18.3%
OPERATING MARGIN -19.3%
NET MARGIN -17.0%
ROIC % -21.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +0.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 2.04x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.59%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MATVPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $10.29
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>