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Mativ Holdings Inc. (MATV) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$11.25 -0.97% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.21

Mativ Holdings Inc. (MATV) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $620.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.21 (-0.36%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 4.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MATV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MATV SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 50% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.7% FCF Margin ($93.8M FCF) & 18.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 14 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$11.60-3.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$11.21+7.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$12.06-6.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$11.25-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MATV Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MATV currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.94) and Max Pain ($11.81) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.25.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MATV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MATV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

44.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.66>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE50% OF RANGE

L: $7$11.25H: $15

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on MATV

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

-21.2% ROIC with 18.3% gross margin and 15.11% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (30)

Altman-Z 0.66 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (50)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MATV

✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MATV)

✓Walkthrough of MATV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MATV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +21.23%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $11.20H $11.46L $11.12C $11.25VOL 592.4K

RES: $12.23SUP: $10.97SMA50: $11.94SMA200: $10.28

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MATV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MATV Butterfly Map → + Track MATV →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MATV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MATV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MATV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MATV)

Materials Rank #196 of 270 ⚔️ RYAM vs MATV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (MATV vs. RYAM, MAGN, SLVM, CLW)

Industry: Paper (7 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mativ Holdings Inc. (MATV) ranks #196 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #164 by equity capitalization ($620.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SLVM leads on earnings valuation at 9.7x trailing P/E, while SLVM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.5% ROIC and — gross margin. SLVM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MATV at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MATV ACTIVE Mativ Holdings Inc.	D	45/100	—	18.3%	-21.2%	-0.97%	$620.9M	Benchmark Subject
RYAM Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc.	D	47/100	—	8.1%	1.3%	-0.74%	$452.5M	/ryam-vs-matv →
MAGN Magnera Corporation	D	48/100	—	10.5%	0.1%	+2.20%	$432.5M	/magn-vs-matv →
SLVM Sylvamo Corporation	B	73/100	9.7x	—	20.5%	+1.32%	$1.29B	/slvm-vs-matv →
CLW Clearwater Paper Corporation	D-	39/100	—	7.4%	-2.9%	-1.29%	$209.5M	/clw-vs-matv →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001000623

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mativ Holdings Inc. (MATV) reported GAAP revenue of $1.99B (+0.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.98B , and -1.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$337.4M, operating cash flow of $133.8M, and free cash flow of $93.8M (+135.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MATV closed FY2025 with $2.05B in total assets against $1.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.66, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.99B	-$337.4M	$133.8M	$93.8M	$2.05B	$1.02B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.98B	-$48.7M	$94.8M	$39.8M	$2.45B	$1.09B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.03B	-$309.5M	$106.6M	$106.6M	—	—

3. MATV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MATV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Mativ Holdings Inc. (NYSE: MATV) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $11.25 (-0.97% 1D, market cap $620.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, MATV ranks #196 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MATV compare to RYAM and MAGN in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Paper), MATV carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 18.3%, and ROIC of -21.2%. By comparison, RYAM (Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.3%, cap $452.5M) and MAGN (Magnera Corporation) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.1%, cap $432.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLVM leads on earnings multiple (9.7x) while SLVM leads on capital efficiency (20.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MATV?

Per MATV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001000623), Mativ Holdings Inc. generated $1.99B in revenue (+0.3% YoY), -$337.4M in net income, and $93.8M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $1.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MATV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MATV last traded at $11.25 (-0.97% on volume of 473,387 shares), positioning the stock -5.78% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.94) and +9.44% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.28). Across its 52-week range of $7.07 to $15.48, MATV sits at the 49.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($10.35 to $12.15).

MATV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MATV stock right now?

Mativ Holdings Inc. (MATV) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 45/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-21% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is MATV's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MATV's 12-month base price target is $10.59 (range $8.26 to $16.25), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: MATV RQD Cockpit MATV 12M Forecast MATV Earnings & Move MATV Dividends & DRIP MATV Insiders & 13F MATV Whale Options MATV Profit Sankey MATV News & Why