MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why MATV Stock slipped -0.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$11.25 -0.97% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.21
Mativ Holdings Inc. (MATV) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $620.9M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.21 (-0.36%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 4.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MATV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MATV SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (29% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 50% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (20% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.7% FCF Margin ($93.8M FCF) & 18.3% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 14 pts from forensic ceiling
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$11.60-3.4% Next Q
53
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$11.21+7.6% Next Q
50
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$12.06-6.7% Next Q
48
CurrentGrade D$11.25-6.3% Hist 90D α
45
Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MATV Turnaround Squeeze
While MATV currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.94) and Max Pain ($11.81) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.25.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MATV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MATV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why MATV Stock slipped -0.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Mativ Holdings Inc. (MATV) slipped -0.97% to $11.25, trading at 50% of its 52-week range ($7.07 – $15.48). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-21% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 50% of its 52-week range ($7.07 – $15.48) with RSI-14 at 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8% around $11.25 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 18.3% gross margin and $93.8M annual free cash flow.
Live MATV Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MATV)
- ✓Walkthrough of MATV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MATV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +21.23%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $11.20H $11.46L $11.12C $11.25VOL 592.4K
RES: $12.23SUP: $10.97SMA50: $11.94SMA200: $10.28
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
MATV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +0.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MATV today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MATV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MATV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MATV)
Materials Rank #196 of 270
⚔️ RYAM vs MATV Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (MATV vs. RYAM, MAGN, SLVM, CLW)
Industry: Paper (7 Tracked Issuers)Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mativ Holdings Inc. (MATV) ranks #196 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #164 by equity capitalization ($620.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SLVM leads on earnings valuation at 9.7x trailing P/E, while SLVM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.5% ROIC and — gross margin. SLVM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MATV at 45/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MATV
ACTIVE
Mativ Holdings Inc. | D | 45/100 | — | 18.3% | -21.2% | -0.97% | $620.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| RYAM Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. | D | 47/100 | — | 8.1% | 1.3% | -0.74% | $452.5M | /ryam-vs-matv → |
| MAGN Magnera Corporation | D | 48/100 | — | 10.5% | 0.1% | +2.20% | $432.5M | /magn-vs-matv → |
| SLVM Sylvamo Corporation | B | 73/100 | 9.7x | — | 20.5% | +1.32% | $1.29B | /slvm-vs-matv → |
| CLW Clearwater Paper Corporation | D- | 39/100 | — | 7.4% | -2.9% | -1.29% | $209.5M | /clw-vs-matv → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001000623In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mativ Holdings Inc. (MATV) reported GAAP revenue of $1.99B (+0.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.98B , and -1.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$337.4M, operating cash flow of $133.8M, and free cash flow of $93.8M (+135.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MATV closed FY2025 with $2.05B in total assets against $1.02B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.66, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.99B | -$337.4M | $133.8M | $93.8M | $2.05B | $1.02B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.98B | -$48.7M | $94.8M | $39.8M | $2.45B | $1.09B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.03B | -$309.5M | $106.6M | $106.6M | — | — |
3. MATV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs MATV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Mativ Holdings Inc. (NYSE: MATV) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $11.25 (-0.97% 1D, market cap $620.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, MATV ranks #196 in composite RQD confidence.
How does MATV compare to RYAM and MAGN in the Materials sector?
Within the Materials sector (Paper), MATV carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 18.3%, and ROIC of -21.2%. By comparison, RYAM (Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.3%, cap $452.5M) and MAGN (Magnera Corporation) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.1%, cap $432.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLVM leads on earnings multiple (9.7x) while SLVM leads on capital efficiency (20.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MATV?
Per MATV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001000623), Mativ Holdings Inc. generated $1.99B in revenue (+0.3% YoY), -$337.4M in net income, and $93.8M in free cash flow against $2.05B in total assets and $1.02B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is MATV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
MATV last traded at $11.25 (-0.97% on volume of 473,387 shares), positioning the stock -5.78% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.94) and +9.44% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.28). Across its 52-week range of $7.07 to $15.48, MATV sits at the 49.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($10.35 to $12.15).
MATV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is MATV stock moving today?
Why MATV Stock slipped -0.97% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-21% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.