ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

LMND // Lemonade Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001691421 ↗
Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers
$45.91 ▲ +0.55 (+1.21%)
MKT CAP: $3.55B • VOL: 1.06M
LMND // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 38/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
38 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
3 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -24.5% vs NI +17.9% • ROIC-WACC -40.1% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 70% • VS 200D +4.5% • RSI 57.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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LMND // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.94%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $44.49H $45.91L $42.53C $45.91VOL 1.39M
RES: $51.97SUP: $41.93SMA50: $47.87SMA200: $58.41
$83.94$72.72$61.49$50.27$39.05RES $51.97SUP $41.93$45.912026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
LMND // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 37/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Lemonade Inc. (LMND) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -31.1% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and -31.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -31.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +40.2% paired with -0.73% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +40.2% // FCF YLD: -0.73%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 3/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $45.91 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend -22.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -22.5% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -0.73%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN -22.5%
ROIC % -31.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +40.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 38.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // LMNDPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $42.01
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>