ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

IPGP // IPG Photonics Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001111928 ↗
Technology • Semiconductors
$75.70 ▲ +0.17 (+0.23%)
MKT CAP: $3.22B • VOL: 322.4K
IPGP // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 36/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
36 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
6 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -102.3% vs NI +117.1% • ROIC-WACC -8% • Z 9.07
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
8 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 38% • VS 200D -4% • RSI 47.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
6 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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IPGP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.34%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $72.30H $75.70L $71.23C $75.70VOL 379.7K
RES: $79.82SUP: $68.14SMA50: $76.38SMA200: $101.3
$139.7$120.3$101.0$81.62$62.26RES $79.82SUP $68.14$75.702026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
IPGP // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP) exhibits 38.0% gross margins and 0.6% return on invested capital within Technology (Semiconductors), balanced against a 35.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 38.0% gross profitability converts into 1.3% operating margin and 0.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 0.6% // GM: 38.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +2.7% paired with -0.11% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +2.7% // FCF YLD: -0.11%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 9.07 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 9.07 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 103.5x trailing P/E (96.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 103.5x // EV/EBITDA: 35.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $75.70 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Semiconductors require continuous execution to defend 3.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.1% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 96.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 103.5x
FORWARD P/E 96.3x
EV / EBITDA 35.2x
FCF YIELD -0.11%
GROSS MARGIN 38.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 1.3%
NET MARGIN 3.1%
ROIC % 0.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +2.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.73
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // IPGPPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $69.27
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>