IBG // Innovation Beverage Group Limited

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001924482 ↗

Consumer Staples • Beverages (Production/Distribution)

$0.85 ▼ -0.11 (-11.00%)

MKT CAP: $4.0M • VOL: 41.8K

52W L $1 52W H $18

PIOTROSKI

2 / 9

IBG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

▲ UPGRADE // E (RQD 34) -> D- (RQD 36) AS OF 2026-11-02

ROARABLE D-

RQD CONFIDENCE

36 / 100 +2D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

9 / 20

WARNING

FCF +18.4% vs NI -31.8% • ROIC-WACC -43.6% • Z 3.2

02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND

Whale & Options Flow

9 / 20

WARNING

52W RANGE 2% • VS 200D -38.3% • RSI 54.9

03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Insider & Capital Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL

04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

7 / 20

WARNING

HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.02 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.16

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

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ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON IBG)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▲ BULLISH // MACRO TAILWIND SCORE (96/100)SIFTER 05 // TRUE NET LIQUIDITY BETA

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +5.41σ

IBG Exhibits 5.28x True Net Liquidity Elasticity as Fed-TGA-RRP Prints $5,746B

TRUE NET LIQUIDITY

$5,746B (-0.64% 4W)

NET LIQUIDITY ELASTICITY

5.28x BETA (r=-0.19)

MACRO TAILWIND SCORE

96 / 100

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // FRED WALCL - TGA - RRP × 5Y BETA]

FRED Fed Assets (WALCL)US Treasury TGA (WTREGEN) + ON RRPICE BofA High-Yield OAS + 5Y Equity Beta

Wall Street's True Net Liquidity Index (WALCL minus Treasury General Account WTREGEN minus Overnight RRP) stands at $5,745.73B (-0.64% 4-week RoC; High-Yield OAS +2 bps). Rolling 5-year regression assigns Innovation Beverage Group Limited (IBG) a 5.28x Net Liquidity beta (r = -0.19), placing it in the top decile of liquidity-sensitive equities. Current plumbing translates to a deterministic Macro Tailwind Score of 96/100.

IBG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.67%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $1.02H $1.02L $0.85C $0.85VOL 113.0K

RES: $1.05SUP: $0.67SMA50: $0.93SMA200: $1.62

IBG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Innovation Beverage Group Limited (IBG) exhibits 44.2% gross margins and -35.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 44.2% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -35.0% // GM: 44.2%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -5.1% paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -5.1% // FCF YLD: 2.80%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 2/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $0.85 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Beverages (Production/Distribution) require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.45x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E —

FORWARD P/E —

EV / EBITDA —

FCF YIELD —

GROSS MARGIN 44.2%

OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%

NET MARGIN -60.0%

ROIC % -35.0%

REV GROWTH YOY -5.1%

DILUTED EPS TTM —

DEBT / EQUITY —

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 54.9

5Y EQUITY BETA —

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // IBGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $0.78

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for IBG & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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